TC 02P(MAL) peaked as a CAT 1 US while tracking just west of FIJI//1503utc

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A DEEP MEDIUM-SIZED SYSTEM THAT HAS BEGUN TO UNRAVEL WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION BECOMING FRAGMENTED BUT HAS MAINTAINED AN INTENSE CORE. THE SOUTHERN FORWARD FLANK OF THE CYCLONE HAS BECOME ELONGATED WITH EXPOSURE TO THE STRONG WESTERLIES. THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAS MAINTAINED A RAGGED REMNANT EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE REMNANT EYE IN THE MSI LOOP THAT LINED UP WELL WITH A CIRCULATION FEATURE IN A COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP FROM FIJI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC MAL WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE STEERING STR FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE DUE TO SHARPLY INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LEADING TO A RAPID DETERIORATION. CONCURRENTLY BY TAU 36, TC 02P WILL COMMENCE SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE STRONG WESTERLIES, AND BY TAU 48 WILL BECOME A 40-KT SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM WITH AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS REMAIN IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A GRADUAL AND EVEN SPREAD TO JUST 85NM BY TAU 48, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THERE IS ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE WIND FIELD TYPICAL WITH SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION.