TC 02A(BIPARJOY) making landfall close to the PAKISTAN/INDIA border shortly after 12hours//1509utc

JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON TC 02A(BIPARJOY).

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A VERTICALLY DECOUPLED CIRCULATION, AS THE LLCC STEAMS TOWARDS THE COAST OF INDIA AND THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES LAG BEHIND. NEARLY THE ENTIRE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION IS ENGULFED IN DRY AIR PARTIALLY REVEALING THE LLCC. A RECENT 150508Z AMSUB 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A BROADENING CIRCULATION WITH DEEP CONVECTION LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A PARTIAL 150124Z SMAP MICROWAVE RADIOMETER PASS REVEALS THE MAXIMUM WINDS (64-65KTS) RESIDE IN THE SOUTHERN REGION OF THE LLCC, WHILE 36-45KT WINDS DOMINATE ELSEWHERE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON MSI AND AMSUB IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON 150124Z SMAP DATA INDICATING SLIGHTLY ABOVE PGTW AND KNES DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WHILE MOST OTHER AUTOMATED ESTIMATES REMAIN TOO LOW.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: THE NEARLY 800NM JOURNEY OF TC 02A (BIPARJOY) IS RAPIDLY COMING TO A CLOSE. OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, 02A WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE PAKISTAN-INDIA BOARDER. DURING THIS TIME, INCREASING LAND INTERACTION WILL COMBINE WITH ALREADY MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM TO AROUND 55KTS. AFTER MAKING LANDFALL JUST AFTER TAU 12, THE SYSTEM WILL BE PUSHED INLAND BY THE STR OVER SOUTHERN INDIA AND THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ. AS IS USUALLY THE CASE, MAKING LANDFALL IS GAME OVER. THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND DETERIORATE THROUGH TAU 36, EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING NEAR TAU 48.

MODEL DISCUSSION: WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NVGM TO THE NORTH, NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 02A WILL MAKE LANDFALL FOLLOWING TAU 12 AND PROCEED NORTHEAST INTO THE PAKISTAN-INDIA BOARDER. FOR THIS REASON, THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. RELIABLE MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EXCEPTION OF GFS AND COAMPS-TC. THESE TWO MEMBERS CONTINUE TO UNREALISTICALLY INTENSIFY THE SYSTEM BEFORE LANDFALL WHILE THE REMAINING GUIDANCE WEAKENS THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. BASED ON THE DETERIORATING ENVIRONMENT MENTIONED ABOVE, LESS CREDENCE IS PLACED IN GFS AND COAMPS-TC, RESULTING IN AN OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST.