TC 01B(FANI): significant intensification forecast and possible threat to the north-east coasts of India in 4 to 5 days

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TC FANI(01B)
As of 06:00 UTC Apr 29, 2019:
Location: 9.5°N 87.1°E
Maximum Winds: 45 kt ( 85km/h)
Gusts: 55 kt ( 100km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 998 mb
REMARKS:
290900Z POSITION NEAR 9.8N 86.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (FANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
(KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND SPIRAL RAIN BANDS PRIMARILY TO THE
NORTH. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BECAUSE THE
LLCC IS NOT CLEARLY DEFINED, AS EVIDENCED IN A 290359Z MHS 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS CONSISTENT WITH
THE PGTW AND KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45
KTS). THE ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTIVE OVERALL WITH MODERATE (15-20 KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD OUTFLOW TO THE WEST AND NORTH, AND WARM
(30-31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE. TC 01B IS TRACKING ALONG
THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). AROUND TAU 36-
48, TC 01B WILL ROUND THE STR AXIS AND BEGIN TRACKING NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD. AROUND TAU 120, THE CYCLONE SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL IN
NORTHERN INDIA. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE, AND THE
CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO 110 KTS BY TAU
96. THE SPREAD IN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL. THE
JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MESOSCALE
MODELS THROUGH TAU 72-96. AT THAT POINT, THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE
TRACKERS MAKE LANDFALL AND DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM MORE QUICKLY THAN
THE JTWC FORECAST. THE GLOBAL MODEL TRACKERS ARE IN GOOD GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST BUT THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST BECAUSE OF HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL
POSITION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 291500Z, 292100Z, 300300Z AND 300900Z.//
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