Super Typhoon 02W(MAWAR) bearing down on GUAM, direct hit forecast//2306utc

JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON STY 02W(MAWAR).

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: TC MAWAR HAS UNDERGONE RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND IS SHOWING SIGNS OF FURTHER RI ALONG WITH AN EYE WALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC). ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A FAIRLY SYMMETRICAL SYSTEM THAT HAS A RELATIVELY SMALL 14 NM DIAMETER EYE WITH BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ANALYSIS OF THE PREVIOUS 12 HOURS SHOW THAT THE SYSTEM HAD A SLIGHT WOBBLE IN TRACK. THIS BEHAVIOR IS EXPECTED OF A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING SYSTEM AS STATED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. IN ADDITION, A 222046Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS DEFINED SPIRAL BANDING IN THE WESTERN AND EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLES OF THE LLCC. RADAR IMAGERY FROM ANDERSEN AIR FORCE BASE (PGUA) SHOWS THE OUTER BANDS OF THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER GUAM, ROTA, AND THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS, AS WELL AS THE EYE OF THE SYSTEM APPROACHING GUAM FROM THE SOUTHEAST. MOREOVER, RECENT SURFACE WEATHER OBSERVATIONS FROM ANDERSEN AFB INDICATE CONSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WITH GUSTS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. ANALYSIS OF THE 222047Z CIMSS M-PERC EYEWALL REPLACEMENT TOOL INDICATES AN ERC IS TAKING PLACE. TC MAWAR IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG WESTWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, A PRONOUNCED 850 MB VORTICITY SIGNATURE, LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND VERY WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY FIXES, AS WELL AS THE ABOVEMENTIONED RADAR AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED OFF A BLEND OF MULTI-AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC MAWAR HAS UNDERGONE RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND IS SHOWING SIGNS OF FURTHER RI ALONG WITH AN ERC. TC 02W IS RIDING THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE EAST. DURING TAUS 12 THROUGH 24, TC MAWAR WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AND STEADILY INTENSIFY TO 125 KNOTS AS THE STORM CENTER MAKES ITS APPROACH TO THE SOUTHERN SHORES OF GUAM. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS TO BE HIGHER THAN 125 KNOTS DURING THIS TIME AS DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE ON A CLIMBING TREND. BETWEEN TAUS 24 AND 36, TC MAWAR WILL MAKE THE TURN MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF GUAM AS THE STR TO THE EAST BUILDS IN OVER THE NORTH. THIS STR WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, AND CONTINUE TO STEER THE SYSTEM ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY. IN ADDITION, THE SYSTEM WILL BE PASSING INTO A FAVORABLE AREA FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AS COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF DEEP OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA WILL LEND A HAND TO INCREASE INTENSIFICATION. AS A RESULT, TC MAWAR WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 135 KNOTS BY TAU 96. BY TAU 120, TC 02W WILL BEGIN TO MAKE THE APPROACH TO THE STR AXIS AND HEAD ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY.

MODEL DISCUSSION: THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE ALL IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THAT TC MAWAR WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24, THEN MAKE THE TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BY TAU 36. IN THE SHORT TERM, THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK CONSENSUS MEMBERS ARE SHOWING A 15 NM SPREAD AT TAU 12 THAT GRADUALLY INCREASES TO 32 NM BY TAU 24, AND 50 NM BY TAU 36. AFTERWARDS, THE SPREAD INCREASE TO 109 NM BY TAU 96. DUE TO THE TIGHT AGREEMENT IN THE NEAR TERM, THE JTWC TRACK IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE CLOSE TO CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 72, AND MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AFTERWARDS DUE TO THE SPREAD OF THE MODELS. THE JTWC INTENSITY CONSENSUS DISPLAYS A 20 KNOT SPREAD THROUGH TAU 36, MORE THAN LIKELY DUE TO THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. AFTERWARDS, THE SPREAD INCREASES INTO THE LATER TAUS. HOWEVER, THEY DO AGREE WITH AN INCREASING SCENARIO THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SET SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN CONSENSUS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION.

MODEL DISCUSSION: THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE ALL IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THAT TC MAWAR WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24, THEN MAKE THE TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BY TAU 36. IN THE SHORT TERM, THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK CONSENSUS MEMBERS ARE SHOWING A 15 NM SPREAD AT TAU 12 THAT GRADUALLY INCREASES TO 32 NM BY TAU 24, AND 50 NM BY TAU 36. AFTERWARDS, THE SPREAD INCREASE TO 109 NM BY TAU 96. DUE TO THE TIGHT AGREEMENT IN THE NEAR TERM, THE JTWC TRACK IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE CLOSE TO CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 72, AND MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AFTERWARDS DUE TO THE SPREAD OF THE MODELS. THE JTWC INTENSITY CONSENSUS DISPLAYS A 20 KNOT SPREAD THROUGH TAU 36, MORE THAN LIKELY DUE TO THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. AFTERWARDS, THE SPREAD INCREASES INTO THE LATER TAUS. HOWEVER, THEY DO AGREE WITH AN INCREASING SCENARIO THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SET SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN CONSENSUS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION.