Super Cyclone 01B(MOCHA) peaked at 150kt/CAT 5 US landfall close to SITTWE//TC 19S(FABIEN) rapid intensification next 48h likely//1409utc

JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS ON TC 01B(MOCHA) AND TC 19S(FABIEN). 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED ON BOTH CYCLONES.

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: HAVING CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, TC 01B (MOCHA) LIKELY REACHED PEAK INTENSITY AT OR NEAR 140000Z, AND HAS SUBSEQUENTLY WEAKENED AS IT APPROACHES LANDFALL. ANALYSIS OF A 132346Z SMAP PASS SHOWED A MAXIMUM 10-MIN WIND OF 152 KNOTS, OR 163 KNOTS 1-MIN AND A NEAR-COINCIDENT RCM-2 SAR PASS AT 132355Z SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF WINDS BETWEEN 145-152 KNOTS IN THE EYEWALL. FINALLY, OPEN-AIIR AND DEEP MICRONET ESTIMATES AT 140000Z WERE IN THE 145-148 KNOT RANGE. TAKING THESE ESTIMATES INTO ACCOUNT, THE 140000Z INTENSITY HAS BEEN REVISED TO 150 KNOTS AND MARKS THE PEAK INTENSITY OF TC 01B. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) IMAGERY CURRENTLY DEPICT AN ERODING EYE FEATURE WHICH HAS RAPIDLY FILLED IN, AS WELL AS SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES, INDICATIVE OF A RAPID WEAKENING TREND. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED PRIMARILY ON ANALYSIS OF MET-9, HIM-9 AND GK2A EYE POSITIONS AND AGENCY FIX POSITIONS, AND INTERMITTENT RADAR DATA FROM BANGLADESH. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A BLEND OF AGENCY CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T7.0 AND DATA-T NUMBERS AT T6.5 AND THE OPEN- AIIR ESTIMATE OF 137 KNOTS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS QUICKLY TRANSITIONING TO UNFAVORABLE, MID-LEVEL SHEAR HAVING INCREASED SHARPLY, DRY AIR BEGINNING TO BE ENTRAINED INTO THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE CORE, AND DECREASING SSTS.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 01B WILL MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS JUST NORTH OF SITTWE, MYANMAR. THEREAFTER IT WILL TRACK QUICKLY INLAND OVER THE RUGGED INTERIOR OF MYANMAR. FURTHER WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED PRIOR TO THE EYE CROSSING THE COAST, HOWEVER THE SYSTEM WILL STILL BE A POWERFUL TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH MAXIMUM WINDS AT OR NEAR 130 KNOTS WHEN IT COMES ASHORE. BY TAU 12, THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY UNDER THE COMBINED INFLUENCES OF DRAMATICALLY HIGHER SHEAR, WHICH WILL DECAPITATE THE VORTEX, AND THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS DUE TO TERRAIN INTERACTION. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO FULLY DISSIPATE OVER NORTHERN MYANMAR NO LATER THAN TAU 36.

MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, THOUGH THE EUROPEAN MODELS DISSIPATE THE VORTEX MORE QUICKLY, AND TURN THE REMNANTS TO THE SOUTH, INTO EASTERN MYANMAR. HOWEVER, THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND TRACKS THE SYSTEM INTO NORTHERN MYANMAR WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY FORECAST IS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH ALL MODELS INDICATING DISSIPATION NO LATER THAN TAU 36, AND POTENTIALLY A BIT EARLIER, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST.

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: OVER THE PAST 6 TO 12 HOURS, TC 19S HAS QUICKLY CONSOLIDATED A LOW LEVEL CORE AND REACHED TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO THE ASSESSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WHICH REMAINS OBSCURED. THE MOST RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM 140036Z SHOWS A BROAD BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST AND WRAPPING INTO A TIGHT COMMA-LIKE FEATURE WHICH IS THE CORE OF TC 19S. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE LACK OF RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY, BASED SOLELY ON THE ANIMATED MSI AND AGENCY FIX POSITIONS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES BETWEEN T2.5 AND T3.5. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE IMPROVING, WITH ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN HAS IMPROVED DRAMATICALLY SINCE YESTERDAY, WITH HIGH-LEVEL CIRRUS NOW EXTENDING OUTWARD IN A NEAR-RADIAL FASHION AND DECREASED OUTFLOW EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM TC MOCHA IN THE BAY OF BENGAL. SHEAR IS LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS), WHILE SSTS ARE VERY WARM (29-30C). THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 19S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT A RELATIVELY STEADY PACE, THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE STEERING RIDGE CENTERED TO THE SOUTH. THE APPROACH OF A DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE WEST WILL ERODE THE STEERING RIDGE AFTER TAU 48, CREATING A BREAK IN THE RIDGE BY TAU 72, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO PUSH MORE POLEWARD AFTER THIS POINT. HOW STRONG THE TROUGH COMES, AND HOW MUCH TC 19S REACTS IN TERMS OF TRACK IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN, WITH VERY LARGE INCONSISTENCIES BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS. BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND ANALYSIS OF GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS, IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THE TROUGH WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK AND RIDGING WILL QUICKLY BUILD BACK IN, IN ITS WAKE AND TC 19S IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO DIVE POLEWARD AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, THE TRACK WILL SLOW DOWN BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM ENTERS A GENERALLY WEAK STEERING PATTERN. IN LIGHT OF THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO STEADILY INTENSITY AT A 30 KNOTS PER DAY RATE, REACHING PEAK INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS BY TAU 72. AFTER THIS POINT, THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT SLOWS DOWN, AND SUCCUMBS TO SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS UPWELLED ALONG ITS TRACK, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND INCREASING VWS.

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH ROUGHLY TAU 48, BUT THEN DIVERGES SHARPLY. BY TAU 48, THE HWRF, GFS, AND GFS ENSEMBLE, ALONG WITH THE COAMPS-TC (GFS VERSION) TURN TC 19S SHARPLY EASTWARD, TAKING THE SYSTEM AS FAR EAST AS 79E BY THE END OF THE FORECAST AS WELL AS KEEPING THE SYSTEM NORTH OF 10S, GENERATING A SPREAD OF NEARLY 700NM BY TAU 120. THE REMAINDER OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS INCLUDING NAVGEM, ECMWF, UKMET AND THE UKMET AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS ON THE OTHER HAND TAKE THE SYSTEM ON A FLATTER, SOUTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE ECENS AND GEFS ENSEMBLE PACKAGES HOWEVER ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON A TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST, AT LEAST THROUGH TAU 120, THOUGH THEY SHOW A LARGE SPREAD IN THE INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS. THE JTWC FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO THE ECMWF DETERMINISTIC TRACKER THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, AND JUST EAST OF THE CONSENSUS MEAN. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLES, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A STEADY INTENSIFICATION, FOLLOWED BY SLOW WEAKENING. HOWEVER, THE CTCX AND HWRF TRACKERS INDICATE A RAPID WEAKENING AFTER TAU 48, AS THEY TURN THE SYSTEM SHARPLY EASTWARD AND INTO THE FACE OF MUCH HIGHER SHEAR VALUES AS COMPARED TO THE REST OF THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS. ADDITIONALLY, THE RICN AND RIPA RAPID INTENSIFICATION AIDS HAVE BEEN TRIGGERED. THE JTWC FORECAST LIES ALONG THE RIPA TREND THROUGH TAU 72, THEN CLOSELY TRACKS THE DECAY-SHIPS FORECAST WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.