19S(FARAJI). 07/09UTC LOOP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TIGHTLY CURVED SPIRAL BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A 45 KM DIAMETER EYE. THE PRESENCE OF THE EYE FEATURE LENDS OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION, WHICH HAS REMAINED QUASI STATIONARY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. CLICK TO ANIMATE.
07/06UTC. JTWC IS ISSUING 12HOURLY WARNINGS ON TC 19S(FARAJI). 3 HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE PROVIDED FOR 19S WHEREAS THEY WERE DISCONTINUED FOR INVEST 91P AT 07/0230UTC.
2021 FEB 07 0835UTC #SOUTHERNHEMISPHERE
TC #19S #FARAJI #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN
WARNING 5
As of 06:00 UTC Feb 07, 2021:
Location: 14.9°S 79.9°E
Maximum Winds: 115 kt ( 215km/h)
Gusts: 140 kt ( 260km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 944 mb
CATEGORY US: 4
19S(FARAJI) LOCATED AT 07/06UTC APPROXIMATELY 1185 KM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
Météo974
M974World
Cyclone Class 4
Cheers,PH.
Joint Typhoon Warning Center
TC #19S #FARAJI #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN
WARNING 5
As of 06:00 UTC Feb 07, 2021:
Location: 14.9°S 79.9°E
Maximum Winds: 115 kt ( 215km/h)
Gusts: 140 kt ( 260km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 944 mb
CATEGORY US: 4
19S(FARAJI) LOCATED AT 07/06UTC APPROXIMATELY 1185 KM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
Météo974
M974World
Cyclone Class 4
Cheers,PH.
Joint Typhoon Warning Center
19S(FARAJI). WARNING 5 ISSUED AT 07/09UTC. 19S IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH AND THROUGH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (5- 10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) AND ROBUST POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. DESPITE THESE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, TC FARAJI WILL STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN THE CURRENT 115 KNOTS INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO ENTRAINMENT OF DRY AIR ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM AND A LIKELY LOWER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AS A RESULT OF THE QUASI STATIONARY STORM MOTION. AFTER 24H, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT GRADUAL RE-INTENSIFICATION TO 120 KNOTS BY 48H. THEREAFTER, A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND BY 72H WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM. INITIALLY, THE STEERING STR WILL DRIVE THE SYSTEM POLEWARD AFTER 72H AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER 96H. MODERATE (15-20 KTS) WIND SHEAR AFTER 72H, COUPLED WITH COOLING SEAS AND CONVERGENT UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS TO THE SOUTH WILL LEAD TO FURTHER WEAKENING TO 70 KNOTS BY 120H.
19S(FARAJI). NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN OVERALL FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE INITIAL EASTWARD TRACK HOWEVER THE DYNAMIC NATURE OF THE BUILDING STR RESULTS IN UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE POLEWARD RE-CURVATURE AFTER 72H. THIS UNCERTAINTY LENDS ONLY FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS PLACED LEFT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET A SIGNIFICANT POLEWARD TRACK BIAS FROM THE NAVGEM SOLUTION.
19S(FARAJI). 07/0317UTC. ASCAT-A
19S(FARAJI). 07/0033UTC. SMAP READ 88KNOT WINDS ( AVERAGED OVER 10MINUTES).
19S(FARAJI). 07/0830UTC. CIRA.
19S(FARAJI). 07/0823UTC. MICROWAVE STILL DEPICTS A VERY COMPACT SYSTEM.
19S(FARAJI). 07/0752UTC. NOAA-20.
