South Pacific: Cyclone 16P has formed, forecast to track west of Nuku 'alofa after 24hours

TC #16P
This system is currently analysed as a 35knots TC.
WARNING 1/JTWC
Click on the image to read the Remarks for the Warning 1 and view sat pics and charts .
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS.
As of 00:00 UTC Feb 26, 2019:
Location: 14.9°S 175.8°W
Maximum Winds: 35 kt ( 65km/h)
Gusts: 45 kt ( 85km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 997 mb
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
REMARKS:
260300Z POSITION NEAR 15.5S 175.8W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 194 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF AVATA SAMOA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A CONSOLIDATING AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION ORGANIZING AROUND A
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 252037Z ASCAT PASS
REVEALS A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LLCC WITH 35 KNOT WINDS IN THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT, AND GRADIENT ENHANCED 40 KNOT WINDS FURTHER
REMOVED FROM THE CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS PLACED BASED ON
THE PGTW FIX AND THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.
THE INTENSITY WAS ALSO BASED ON THE ASCAT PASS, AND IS CONSISTENT
WITH DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 FROM MULTIPLE
AGENCIES. TC 16P IS IN A HIGH AMPLITUDE STEERING PATTERN WITH A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST. OVERALL MOTION SHOULD BE
GENERALLY SOUTHERLY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, HOWEVER, A
SLIGHT WESTWARD DEFLECTION IS EXPECTED AROUND TAU 24 AS THIS
STEERING RIDGE BUILDS. AFTER TAU 48, A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL RESULT
IN A DEFLECTION BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS DEEP TROUGH WILL
INTERACT WITH 16P, LEADING TO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ET)
BEGINNING AT TAU 48. THE ET WILL BE COMPLETE BY TAU 72 AS STRONG
BAROCLINICITY BECOMES ESTABLISHED. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 260000Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 261500Z AND 270300Z.
THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 251300).//
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