South Pacific: 92P is now likely to develop next 24hours, models indicate possible high potential of intensification in 3 to 4 days

https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
INVEST 92P
As of 00:00 UTC Mar 15, 2019:
Location: 8.6°S 151.0°E
Maximum Winds: 30 kt ( 55km/h)
Gusts: 40 kt ( 75km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 mb
WTPS21 PGTW 150130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92P)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.2S 151.0E TO 15.1S 148.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 150000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 8.6S 151.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.1S 150.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.6S 151.0E APPROXIMATELY 236
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT MORESBY, PAPUA NEW GUINEA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 142304Z MHS METOP-B 89GHZ
IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE CENTER. A 142306Z METOP-B
ASCAT PASS REVEALS A DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 25 KT WINDS WRAPPED
AROUND THE CENTER AND STRONGER WINDS WRAPPING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS INVEST 92P BORDERING AN AREA OF LOW TO
MODERATE (10-25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WITH EXCELLENT POLEWARD
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.  WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 CELSIUS) IN
THE SOLOMON SEA SUPPORT FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 92P WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
STRENGTH WITH IN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWARD, WITH
POSSIBLE LAND INTERFERENCE FROM NEARBY ISLANDS AND THE PAPUAN
PENINSULA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
160130Z.
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