South Indian Ocean: Invest 97S: Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert// Invest 98S: on the map, 23/06utc

JTWC IS ISSUING 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON 97S AND 98S.

23/06UTC.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.1S 42.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.1S 41.7E, APPROXIMATELY 125KM NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NACALA, MOZAMBIQUE. ENHANCED ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 230316Z SSMIS 91GHZ PASS DEPICT CONVECTION OVERHEAD OF A WEAK AND ILL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS GENERALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, OFFSET BY LOW TO MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND HIGH (25-30KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR JUST TO THE SOUTH. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 97S WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WITH POTENTIAL TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR MOZAMBIQUE WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 97S WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WITH POTENTIAL TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR MOZAMBIQUE WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS.

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.1S 100.6E, APPROXIMATELY 415 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COCOS ISLAND. ENHANCED ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING AN ELONGATED PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 230248Z PARTIAL ASCAT-B PASS REVEALS 20 KNOT WINDS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY; NEAR RADIAL ALOFT, LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29- 30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. DUE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO THE SOUTH, GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 98S WILL HAVE LITTLE DEVELOPMENT AS IT REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO LOW.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 98S WILL HAVE LITTLE DEVELOPMENT AS IT REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.