TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT ISSUED BY THE JTWC
Location: 9.3°S 130.9°E
Maximum Winds: 30 kt ( 55km/h)
Gusts: 40 kt ( 75km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 mb
WTXS21 PGTW 040130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 97S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.9S 131.2E TO 11.2S 126.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 040000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.1S 130.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.2S
133.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.4S 160.4E, APPROXIMATELY 188 NM NORTH
OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH POTENTIAL FORMATIVE BANDING TO THE SOUTH OF A
DEVELOPING NOTCH FEATURE. A 032117Z WINDSAT 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOWS DEFINITIVE LOW LEVEL BANDING BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE LLC
FROM THE SOUTH. 97S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM
(29 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 97S WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
AUSTRALIAN COASTLINE WHILE INTENSIFYING TO WARNING CRITERIA WITHIN
24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
050130Z.//
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0410UTC
0130UTC
2117UTC
