Remnants of TC 18S likely to re-develop within 48H//Over-land remnants of TC 19P(MEGAN)// 10 Day ECMWF Storm Tracks//1906utc

JTWC IS ISSUING 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON THE REMNANTS OF TC 18S AND ON THE REMNANTS OF TC 19P NOW LOCATED OVER-LAND

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS 18S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 18.1S 111.8E, APPROXIMATELY 275 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH A WELL- ORGANIZED UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER POSITIONED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH. A 190156Z MHS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN QUADRANTS WITH NO DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN QUADRANT DUE TO DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. A PARTIAL 190108Z ASCAT-B IMAGE INDICATES 25-30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE DUE PRIMARILY TO EXTENSIVE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT IN THE MID- TO UPPER- LEVELS, OFFSET BY LOW VWS, ROBUST POLEWARD VENTING, AND WARM SST (27- 28 C). GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE SYSTEM WILL REINTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS, BUT VARY SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE TIMING OF THE REDEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH SYSTEM. GFS INDICATES REDEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS WHILE ECMWF INDICATES A LESS AGGRESSIVE 2-3 DAY REDEVELOPMENT TIMELINE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE SYSTEM WILL REINTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS, BUT VARY SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE TIMING OF THE REDEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH SYSTEM. GFS INDICATES REDEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS WHILE ECMWF INDICATES A LESS AGGRESSIVE 2-3 DAY REDEVELOPMENT TIMELINE.