CLICK ON THE IMAGERIES BELOW TO GET THEM ENLARGED
JTWC IS ISSUING 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON THE REMNANTS OF TC 08S(CHENESO). THEY WERE STOPPED AT 23/0545UTC ON THE REMNANTS OF TC 10P.
CLICK ON THE IMAGERY BELOW TO GET IT ANIMATED AND ENLARGED.
SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN: REMNANTS OF TC 08S(CHENESO). ESTIMATED LOCATION AND INTENSITY AT 23/12UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT ISSUED AT 23/14UTC: UPDATED AT 23/18UTC(ABIO ADVISORY).
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS 08S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.0S 45.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.5S 43.8E, APPROXIMATELY 219 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 231452Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT SMALL POCKETS OF DEEP CONVECTION AND WELL-ORGANIZED RAIN BANDS WRAPPING INTO A COMPACT LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION DUE TO WARM (29-30C) SST, MODERATE (15-20KT) VWS, AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT THE REMNANTS OF TC 08S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK FURTHER INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AND REINTENSIFY AS HIGH-PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL BUILD AND PROVIDE INCREASED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE 08S WILL SLOWLY MEANDER TO THE NORTHWEST UNDER THE COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH AND A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AND AWAY FROM LAND, IT IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY INTENSIFY TO WARNING CRITERIA UNDER OPTIMAL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.
SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN/ARAFURA SEA: INVEST 93P. ESTIMATED LOCATION AND INTENSITY AT 23/12UTC.
SOUTH PACIFIC OCEAN: SUBTROPICAL REMNANTS OF TC 10P. ESTIMATED LOCATION AND INTENSITY AT 23/12UTC.
ECMWF ENSEMBLE AT 23/06UTC UP TO +240H.
ECMWF ENSEMBLE AT 23/06UTC UP TO +240H.
