PEIPAH(17W) REACHED MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY BUT IS NOW DOWN TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION INTENSITY.
Météo974
Location: 21.4°N 145.3°E
Maximum Winds: 30 kt ( 55km/h)
Gusts: 40 kt ( 75km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 mb
WDPN31 PGTW 160300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (PEIPAH)
WARNING NR 06//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 17W (PEIPAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 301
NM SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 23 KNOTS (KTS)
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) IN ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY PROVIDES
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. A PARTIAL 152256Z METOP-A
ASCAT PASS JUST MISSED THE LLCC BUT IT DOES SHOW 30 KT WINDS TO THE
EAST OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KTS IS BASED ON THE
ASCAT PASS AND MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T1.5 (25 KTS). THE
ENVIRONMENT IS HOSTILE, DESPITE STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM
(29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST), DUE TO HIGH (35-40
KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TD 17W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, TD 17W WILL TRACK NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE STR. THE HOSTILE
ENVIRONMENT WILL CAUSE DISSIPATION BETWEEN TAU 24 AND 36. THE
FORECAST TRACK CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE
BASED ON DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE.//
NNNN
Location: 23.8°N 132.6°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 998 mb
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Location: 34.3°N 140.5°E
Maximum Winds: 25 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 997 mb
M974World
WESTERN NORTH PACIFICLocation: 21.4°N 145.3°E
Maximum Winds: 30 kt ( 55km/h)
Gusts: 40 kt ( 75km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 mb
WDPN31 PGTW 160300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (PEIPAH)
WARNING NR 06//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 17W (PEIPAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 301
NM SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 23 KNOTS (KTS)
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) IN ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY PROVIDES
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. A PARTIAL 152256Z METOP-A
ASCAT PASS JUST MISSED THE LLCC BUT IT DOES SHOW 30 KT WINDS TO THE
EAST OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KTS IS BASED ON THE
ASCAT PASS AND MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T1.5 (25 KTS). THE
ENVIRONMENT IS HOSTILE, DESPITE STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM
(29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST), DUE TO HIGH (35-40
KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TD 17W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, TD 17W WILL TRACK NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE STR. THE HOSTILE
ENVIRONMENT WILL CAUSE DISSIPATION BETWEEN TAU 24 AND 36. THE
FORECAST TRACK CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE
BASED ON DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE.//
NNNN
Location: 23.8°N 132.6°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 998 mb
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Location: 34.3°N 140.5°E
Maximum Winds: 25 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 997 mb
INTENSITY FORECAST TO BE BELOW 25KNOTS AFTER 36H
16/0430UTC: 17W
16/00UTC: 17W
17W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
INVEST 98W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
