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Overland Remnants of TC 07P(KIRRILY)// Invest 95P//Invest 94P//Remnants of TC 09S// 0303utc



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JTWC IS ISSUING 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON INVEST 94P AND ON INVEST 95P.
JTWC IS ISSUING 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON INVEST 94P AND ON INVEST 95P.

AUSTRALIA: OVERLAND REMNANTS OF TC 07P(KIRRILY). CURRENT ESTIMATED INTENSITY IS 30 KNOTS AT 03/00UTC: -15 KNOTS OVER 24 HOURS.


Model Diagnostic Plot


UPDATED SATELLITE BULLETIN AT 03/0230UTC. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS PUSHING FURTHER INLAND

TPPS10 PGTW 030248

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (KIRRILY)

B. 03/0230Z

C. 19.13S

D. 138.29E

E. FIVE/GK2A

F. N/A

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. DVORAK VALUES UNAVAILABLE DUE TO
LLCC OVER LAND.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


   CVACH
 

SOUTH PACIFIC OCEAN: INVEST 95P. ADVISORY(ABPW) ISSUED AT 03/02UTC. THIS SYSTEM IS CLASSIFIED AS SUBTROPICAL.

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 19.2S  175.0W, APPROXIMATELY 440 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NADI. THE SYSTEM IS  CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCE, GENERALLY  CHARACTERIZED AS HAVING BOTH TROPICAL AND MIDLATITUDE CYCLONE  FEATURES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND A 022343Z GMI 89GHZ  SATELLITE MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF CIRCULATION WITH  CURVED LOW-LEVEL FORMATIVE CLOUD BANDS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS  INDICATES MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT  CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE, MODERATE TO HIGH  (20-30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND HIGH (29-30 C) SEA  SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE   INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE  NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN MAKE A NORTHEASTWARD TURN AT TAU 36. FOR  HAZARDS AND WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO  HIGH WINDS AND SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST  AUTHORITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 17  KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.  THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE  WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 19.2S 175.0W, APPROXIMATELY 440 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NADI. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCE, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS HAVING BOTH TROPICAL AND MIDLATITUDE CYCLONE FEATURES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND A 022343Z GMI 89GHZ SATELLITE MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF CIRCULATION WITH CURVED LOW-LEVEL FORMATIVE CLOUD BANDS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE, MODERATE TO HIGH (20-30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND HIGH (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN MAKE A NORTHEASTWARD TURN AT TAU 36. FOR HAZARDS AND WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST AUTHORITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 17 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.


GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE   INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE  NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN MAKE A NORTHEASTWARD TURN AT TAU 36.
GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN MAKE A NORTHEASTWARD TURN AT TAU 36.

SOUTH PACIFIC OCEAN: INVEST 94P. THIS SYSTEM IS CLASSIFIED AS SUBTROPICAL.



UPDATED SATELLITE BULLETIN AT 02/0230UTC.

TPPS11 PGTW 030249

A. SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94P (W OF NEW CALEDONIA)

B. 03/0230Z

C. 19.00S

D. 162.53E

E. THREE/GK2A

F. N/A

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 19A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. THIS SYSTEM IS TOO WEAK TO
CLASSIFY.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


   CVACH


 

SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN: REMNANTS OF TC 09S.


Model Diagnostic Plot


UPDATED SATELLITE BULLETIN AT 02/2330UTC. THE CENTER COULD NO LONGER BE FOUND.

TPXS11 PGTW 022353

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (E OF PORT MATHURIN)

B. 02/2330Z

C. XX.XX

D. XXX.XX

E. N/A/MET9

F. N/A

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: POSITION OF LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER COULD NOT BE
FOUND.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


   RAE


 

ECMWF Storm Tracks (Ensemble) : 02/02 18UTC+ 10 DAYS


ECMWF Storm Tracks (Ensemble) : 02/02 18UTC+ 10 DAYS



Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Saturday, February 3rd 2024 à 08:48