North Indian Ocean/Arabian Sea: TC 03B(SHAHEEN-GULAB) CAT 1 making landfall apprx 90km West of Muscat/Oman

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 03B WILL TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST. SOME MESOSCALE VARIATION IN TRACK IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AROUND THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF MUSCAT, BUT OTHERWISE THE TRACK SHOULD TAKE THE SYSTEM INTO THE EMPTY QUARTER BY 36H. TC 03B IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS NEAR AL SUWAYQ, OMAN. THE SYSTEM IF FORECAST TO MAINTAIN 65-KNOT/CAT 1 INTENSITY THROUGH LANDFALL, BUT ONCE ASHORE WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO TERRAIN INTERACTION AND ULTIMATELY DISSIPATE OVER THE EMPTY QUARTER BY 36H.

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: TC 03B BATTED ITS EYE AT US EARLIER IN THE DAY, BUT IT WAS NOT MEANT TO BE. OVER THE PAST FOUR OR FIVE HOURS THE PINHOLE EYE OBSERVED AROUND 0600Z HAS FILLED IN, WITH ONLY A WEAK DIMPLE IN THE MSI AND A SMALL WARM SPOT IN THE ENHANCED INFRARED REMAINING. THE SYMMETRICAL, COMPACT CORE OF DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS FAIRLY WELL DEFINED AND THE CIMSS TC DIURNAL TREND CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE TREND PRODUCT INDICATES CLOUD TOPS COOLING A FEW DEGREES WITHIN THE COMPACT CORE REGION (WITHIN ABOUT 100-KM OF THE CENTER), INDICATING THE SYSTEM STILL PACKS SOME ENHANCED CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON POSITIONING OF THE WARM SPOT IN THE 1200Z ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY, SUPPORTED BY A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE IN A 031222Z SSMIS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED SLIGHTLY TO 65 KNOTS/CAT 1 WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, WELL ABOVE THE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES. WHILE THE PGTW CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS T4.5 (77 KNOTS), IT IS BEING HELD THERE DUE TO CONSTRAINTS, AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY MORE CLOSELY MATCHES THE DATA-T OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS). THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF LOW VWS, MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND VERY WARM SSTS. THE ONLY CONSTRAINT IS THE TIME REMAINING OVER WATER AND DIURNAL CYCLING.

MODEL DISCUSSION: THERE IS LITTLE TO NO DISAGREEMENT IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE THROUGH LANDFALL, WITH INCREASING SPREAD THEREAFTER AS THE VORTEX WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES. NAVGEM IS THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT OUTLIER OF THE GROUP, SHOWING THE REMNANTS OF THE SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN UAE. THE REMAINDER OF THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS ARE CLOSELY CLUSTERED ABOUT THE MEAN AND THE JTWC FORECAST LIES CLOSE THE MEAN WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE ALL AGREES ON A STEADY INTENSITY THROUGH LANDFALL AND RAPID WEAKENING THEREAFTER. THE JTWC FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS MEAN WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.

JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS ON TC 03B. 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED ON TC 03B AND INVEST 92W.

03/1415UTC.