Mascarenes area: TC 22S slow-moving, intensifying rapidly next 48hours, potential direct threat to Rodrigues

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TC 22S
As of 06:00 UTC Mar 22, 2019:
Location: 14.7°S 62.7°E
Maximum Winds: 35 kt (65km/h)
Gusts: 45 kt ( 85km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 mb
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 14.9S 62.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (TWENTYTWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 735 NM
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE ON THE MSI IMAGERY AND A 220506Z AMSU 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ANALYSIS OF T2.5 (35 KTS) FROM PGTW, AND IS
ABOVE THE ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (30 KTS) FROM KNES. TC 22S HAS TRACKED
SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD, CAUGHT BETWEEN THE COMPETING STEERING
INFLUENCES OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND MID-LEVEL
RIDGING TO THE SOUTHEAST. IN THE NEAR TERM, TC 22S IS FORECAST TO
MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD DUE TO THE MIDLEVEL RIDGING
TO THE SOUTH. AFTER TAU 48, THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN
TO THE NORTH OF TC 22S, ACCELERATING THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC
22S IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
EXCELLENT ALMOST RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (5-10 KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) AND CONDUCIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 DEGREES
CELSIUS), REACHING A PEAK OF 95 KTS AT TAU 72, WHEN A PASSING
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH WILL FURTHER ENHANCE POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. THE JTWC FORECAST INTENSITY IS ON THE HIGH END OF AVAILABLE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE, AS THERE IS NOTHING DETRIMENTAL IN THE
ENVIRONMENT TO HINDER INTENSIFICATION. AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE S-SHAPED TRACK, BUT THERE
ARE LARGE VARIATIONS IN ALONG-TRACK SPEED AND THE INFLECTION POINTS
WHEN THE TRACK CURVES. GFS AND NAVGEM ARE TO THE EAST OF THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS, AND DEPICT A DUE SOUTHWARD TRACK IN THE NEAR TERM,
WHICH SEEMS UNREALISTIC DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGING TO THE SOUTH ON THIS STILL-WEAK SYSTEM. THE ECMWF SOLUTION
IS FASTER THAN CONSENSUS IN THE SHORT TERM, AND SLOWER IN ALONG-
TRACK SPEED IN LATER TAUS. DUE TO THE SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN
AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS
16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221500Z, 222100Z, 230300Z AND 230900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
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