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Long-lived ex CAT 4 06S(ANGGREK)// TC 09S update// Invest 93W// Invest 94P//3 Week Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability//3109utc



CLICK ON THE IMAGERIES BELOW TO GET THEM ENLARGED

JTWC IS ISSUING 12HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS TC 09S. WARNING 33/FINAL WAS ISSUED ON TC 06S AT 31/09UTC BUT 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE STILL ISSUED.
JTWC IS ISSUING 12HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS TC 09S. WARNING 33/FINAL WAS ISSUED ON TC 06S AT 31/09UTC BUT 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE STILL ISSUED.
JTWC PH
 Joint Typhoon Warning Center
JTWC BIS


SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN: TC 06S(ANGGREK). CURRENT ESTIMATED INTENSITY IS 65 KNOTS/CAT 1 US AT 31/06UTC: -30 KNOTS OVER 24 HOURS.

Long-lived ex CAT 4 06S(ANGGREK)// TC 09S update// Invest 93W// Invest 94P//3 Week Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability//3109utc
0624011012  59S 868E  15
0624011018  62S 880E  15
0624011100  65S 891E  15
0624011106  71S 899E  15
0624011112  76S 905E  20
0624011118  81S 911E  20
0624011200  87S 917E  20
0624011206  95S 925E  20
0624011212 100S 929E  20
0624011218 105S 932E  20
0624011300 108S 934E  20
0624011306 112S 936E  20
0624011312 115S 938E  25
0624011318 116S 940E  25
0624011400 112S 940E  25
0624011406 108S 938E  25
0624011412 106S 938E  25
0624011418 104S 937E  30
0624011500 100S 936E  30
0624011506  96S 936E  35
0624011512  95S 937E  40
0624011518  96S 938E  40
0624011600  95S 939E  40
0624011606  95S 938E  45
0624011612  96S 940E  45
0624011618  96S 942E  45
0624011700  98S 941E  50
0624011706 101S 940E  50
0624011712 104S 940E  45
0624011718 109S 940E  45
0624011800 112S 939E  45
0624011806 116S 938E  45
0624011812 119S 937E  45
0624011818 122S 935E  45
0624011900 124S 933E  55
0624011906 125S 930E  60
0624011912 126S 927E  60
0624011918 126S 925E  70
0624012000 124S 928E  75
0624012006 125S 926E  70
0624012012 124S 925E  70
0624012018 123S 924E  70
0624012100 121S 924E  70
0624012106 120S 922E  65
0624012112 122S 920E  60
0624012118 123S 918E  50
0624012200 125S 917E  45
0624012206 123S 915E  45
0624012212 124S 914E  40
0624012218 126S 915E  40
0624012300 128S 916E  40
0624012306 130S 916E  45
0624012312 133S 916E  50
0624012318 136S 915E  50
0624012400 139S 913E  55
0624012406 140S 912E  65
0624012412 142S 911E  75
0624012418 145S 911E  80
0624012500 147S 908E  80
0624012506 151S 900E  80
0624012512 155S 893E  90
0624012518 160S 883E  95
0624012600 163S 875E 105
0624012606 169S 865E 105
0624012612 175S 853E 110
0624012618 182S 842E 105
0624012700 187S 831E 100
0624012706 190S 820E 100
0624012712 193S 806E 100
0624012718 195S 794E 100
0624012800 200S 779E  95
0624012806 204S 764E  95
0624012812 210S 748E 100
0624012818 217S 732E 110
0624012900 227S 719E 115
0624012906 238S 711E 115
0624012912 251S 708E 120
0624012918 264S 709E 110
0624013000 280S 717E 105
0624013006 291S 728E  95
0624013012 300S 745E  90
0624013018 308S 762E  90
0624013100 314S 789E  80
0624013106 324S 828E  65
 

WARNING 33/FINAL ISSUED AT 31/09UTC. CLICK ON THE IMAGERY BELOW TO GET IT ANIMATED AND ENLARGED.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1767 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 35 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A RAPIDLY DETERIORATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WHICH IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY ELONGATED. THE CIRCULATION IS DEVOID OF ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION AT THIS POINT, WHICH IS DRIVING SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK-BASED INTENSITY ESTIMATES DOWN TO THE 35 KNOT RANGE. HOWEVER, A SERIES OF SAR AND ULTRA-HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT PASSES OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAVE CONFIRMED THAT THE WIND FIELD REMAINS SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THE SATELLITE ESTIMATES WOULD SUGGEST. SO, WHILE STILL WEAKENING, THE SYSTEM REMAINS A STRONG TYPHOON STRENGTH SYSTEM. PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS AND JTWC PHASE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS ALREADY MAKING THE TRANSITION TO AN EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND IT IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE THIS ETT PROCESS WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM RACES SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN A ROBUST UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST AND A STRONG STR TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 310600Z IS 983 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310600Z IS 40 FEET.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1767 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 35 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A RAPIDLY DETERIORATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WHICH IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY ELONGATED. THE CIRCULATION IS DEVOID OF ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION AT THIS POINT, WHICH IS DRIVING SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK-BASED INTENSITY ESTIMATES DOWN TO THE 35 KNOT RANGE. HOWEVER, A SERIES OF SAR AND ULTRA-HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT PASSES OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAVE CONFIRMED THAT THE WIND FIELD REMAINS SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THE SATELLITE ESTIMATES WOULD SUGGEST. SO, WHILE STILL WEAKENING, THE SYSTEM REMAINS A STRONG TYPHOON STRENGTH SYSTEM. PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS AND JTWC PHASE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS ALREADY MAKING THE TRANSITION TO AN EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND IT IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE THIS ETT PROCESS WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM RACES SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN A ROBUST UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST AND A STRONG STR TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 310600Z IS 983 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310600Z IS 40 FEET.


TC Warning Graphic


UPDATED SATELLITE BULLETIN AT 31/0815UTC. THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE IS NOW RAPIDLY BECOMING FULLY EXTRA-TROPICAL.

Long-lived ex CAT 4 06S(ANGGREK)// TC 09S update// Invest 93W// Invest 94P//3 Week Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability//3109utc
TPXS10 PGTW 310918

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK)

B. 31/0815Z

C. 32.72S

D. 84.15E

E. FIVE/MET9

F. T1.5/2.0/W2.5/24HRS  STT: W0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. DENSE OVERCAST SHEARED
80NM FROM LLCC YIELDS A DT OF 1.0. MET YIELDS 2.5. PT YIELDS 1.5.
DBO PT. BROKE CONSTRAINTS DUE TO RAPID WEAKENING.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


   TIMMERMAN

Model Diagnostic Plot


SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN: TC 09S. CURRENT ESTIMATED INTENSITY IS 35 KNOTS AT 31/06UTC: +10 KNOTS OVER 24 HOURS.

Long-lived ex CAT 4 06S(ANGGREK)// TC 09S update// Invest 93W// Invest 94P//3 Week Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability//3109utc
0924012812 150S 619E  20
0924012818 151S 626E  20
0924012900 152S 631E  20
0924012906 156S 634E  20
0924012912 164S 638E  20
0924012918 172S 641E  25
0924013000 177S 641E  25
0924013006 182S 643E  25
0924013012 186S 648E  30
0924013018 193S 654E  30
0924013100 197S 660E  35
0924013106 198S 661E  35

UPDATED SATELLITE BULLETIN AT 31/0830UTC.

Long-lived ex CAT 4 06S(ANGGREK)// TC 09S update// Invest 93W// Invest 94P//3 Week Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability//3109utc
TPXS11 PGTW 310916

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (NE OF PORT MATHURIN)

B. 31/0830Z

C. 19.86S

D. 66.28E

E. THREE/HMWRI9

F. T2.0/2.5/D0.5/24HRS  STT: W0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 19A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES WITH COLD OVERCAST GREATER THAN 90NM ACROSS YIELD A DT OF
2.0. MET & PT YIELD 1.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


   TIMMERMAN
 

WARNING 1 ISSUED AT 31/03UTC.

Long-lived ex CAT 4 06S(ANGGREK)// TC 09S update// Invest 93W// Invest 94P//3 Week Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability//3109utc


RECENT ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAK TC WITH A NOW FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. CLICK ON THE IMAGERY BELOW TO GET IT ANIMATED AND ENLARGED.


TC Warning Graphic

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 09S IS FORECAST TO BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH TAU 48 AS COMPETING STEERING MECHANISMS INFLUENCE INITIAL TRACK MOTION. FOLLOWING TAU 48, TC 09S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 120 AS THE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE LONGWAVE PATTERN PROGRESSES EASTWARD. AS ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH TAU 48, THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY TO NEAR 50 KTS AND MAINTAIN INTENSITY INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO COMPETING FAVORABLE TRACK SPEEDS WITH A GRADUAL DECAY IN ENVIRONMENTAL INFLUENCES.
FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 09S IS FORECAST TO BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH TAU 48 AS COMPETING STEERING MECHANISMS INFLUENCE INITIAL TRACK MOTION. FOLLOWING TAU 48, TC 09S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 120 AS THE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE LONGWAVE PATTERN PROGRESSES EASTWARD. AS ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH TAU 48, THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY TO NEAR 50 KTS AND MAINTAIN INTENSITY INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO COMPETING FAVORABLE TRACK SPEEDS WITH A GRADUAL DECAY IN ENVIRONMENTAL INFLUENCES.

 

Model Diagnostic Plot

MODEL DISCUSSION: GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT TC 09S WILL TRACK GENERALLY QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH TAU 48 AS COMPETING STEERING MECHANISMS SLOW THE GENERAL TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE JTWC TRACK CONSENSUS AT TAU 72 DISPLAYS A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 75NM LENDING MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TO THE TAU 0-72 INTERVAL, WHILE THE ALONG-TRACK SPREAD IS 218NM, CONVEYING LOW-CONFIDENCE IN TRACK SPEED DURING THE 0-72 TAU INTERVAL. THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE JTWC INTENSITY CONSENSUS MEMBERS PRESENTS ITSELF AT TAU 72, WITH A 20 KTS SPREAD, CONVEYING MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AT TAU 72. HOWEVER, BY TAU 108, INTENSITY CONSENSUS MEMBERS CONVERGE TO A SPREAD OF JUST 5 KTS.
MODEL DISCUSSION: GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT TC 09S WILL TRACK GENERALLY QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH TAU 48 AS COMPETING STEERING MECHANISMS SLOW THE GENERAL TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE JTWC TRACK CONSENSUS AT TAU 72 DISPLAYS A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 75NM LENDING MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TO THE TAU 0-72 INTERVAL, WHILE THE ALONG-TRACK SPREAD IS 218NM, CONVEYING LOW-CONFIDENCE IN TRACK SPEED DURING THE 0-72 TAU INTERVAL. THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE JTWC INTENSITY CONSENSUS MEMBERS PRESENTS ITSELF AT TAU 72, WITH A 20 KTS SPREAD, CONVEYING MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AT TAU 72. HOWEVER, BY TAU 108, INTENSITY CONSENSUS MEMBERS CONVERGE TO A SPREAD OF JUST 5 KTS.

WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC: INVEST 93W.ESTIMATED LOCATION AND INTENSITY AT 31/00UTC.


SOUTH PACIFIC/CORAL SEA: INVEST 94P.ESTIMATED LOCATION AND INTENSITY AT 31/06UTC. CURRENT ESTIMATED INTENSITY IS 25 KNOTS.



ECMWF Storm Tracks (Ensemble) : 01/31 00UTC+ 10 DAYS


ECMWF Storm Tracks (Ensemble) : 01/31 00UTC+ 10 DAYS


Last Updated - 01/30/24 3 WEEK TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT PROBABILITY

Last Updated - 01/30/24 Valid - 02/07/24 - 02/20/24 A strong MJO event continues as the RMM-index moved into phase 7 (Western Pacific). Dynamical model solutions diverge more this week, but still generally portray a weakening signal in the near future as the MJO is favored to encounter competing interference with other modes of tropical variability. Enhanced convection associated with MJO activity and a westerly wind burst (WWB) is expected to provide favorable conditions for Tropical Cyclone (TC) development over the South Pacific Ocean throughout the coming forecast period. Strong subtropical westerly flow over the North Pacific is forecast both near the surface and aloft, potentially leading to an atmospheric river event to affect the West Coast of the U.S. during the week-2 period. No new TCs formed in the last week. There is more model spread in the near-term relative to last week’s forecast, but the general picture favors the MJO entering a period of increased constructive interference with the atmospheric response to El Nino forcing, during which model solutions favor the RMM index remaining in phase 7. Forecast velocity potential anomalies indicate a more progressive picture, with enhanced divergence moving out of the Coral Sea by week-3. Models also depict with much higher agreement the emergence of a strong WWB over the Western Pacific, favored to last into week-3. Such a wind burst would ease wind shear and favor TC development over the South Pacific. TC genesis probabilities are enhanced throughout the South Pacific and much of the Australian region for the entire forecast period. During week-2 probabilities of TC genesis exceed 60% for much of the Coral Sea and Vanuatu region, with moderate chances (>40%) extending westward to the Gulf of Carpentaria. A similar area is highlighted for the week-3 period, with lower probabilities overall; a moderate chance of TC genesis is posted for Vanuatu and eastward to American Samoa, while a slight chance (>20%) extends westward to the Gulf of Carpentaria.
Last Updated - 01/30/24 Valid - 02/07/24 - 02/20/24 A strong MJO event continues as the RMM-index moved into phase 7 (Western Pacific). Dynamical model solutions diverge more this week, but still generally portray a weakening signal in the near future as the MJO is favored to encounter competing interference with other modes of tropical variability. Enhanced convection associated with MJO activity and a westerly wind burst (WWB) is expected to provide favorable conditions for Tropical Cyclone (TC) development over the South Pacific Ocean throughout the coming forecast period. Strong subtropical westerly flow over the North Pacific is forecast both near the surface and aloft, potentially leading to an atmospheric river event to affect the West Coast of the U.S. during the week-2 period. No new TCs formed in the last week. There is more model spread in the near-term relative to last week’s forecast, but the general picture favors the MJO entering a period of increased constructive interference with the atmospheric response to El Nino forcing, during which model solutions favor the RMM index remaining in phase 7. Forecast velocity potential anomalies indicate a more progressive picture, with enhanced divergence moving out of the Coral Sea by week-3. Models also depict with much higher agreement the emergence of a strong WWB over the Western Pacific, favored to last into week-3. Such a wind burst would ease wind shear and favor TC development over the South Pacific. TC genesis probabilities are enhanced throughout the South Pacific and much of the Australian region for the entire forecast period. During week-2 probabilities of TC genesis exceed 60% for much of the Coral Sea and Vanuatu region, with moderate chances (>40%) extending westward to the Gulf of Carpentaria. A similar area is highlighted for the week-3 period, with lower probabilities overall; a moderate chance of TC genesis is posted for Vanuatu and eastward to American Samoa, while a slight chance (>20%) extends westward to the Gulf of Carpentaria.


Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Wednesday, January 31st 2024 à 16:05
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