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WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC: INVEST 98W. ESTIMATED LOCATION AND INTENSITY AT 041200UTC.
CLICK ON THE IMAGERY BELOW TO GET IT ANIMATED AND ENLARGED. ADVISORY(ABPW) ISSUED AT 041400UTC.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 137.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 137.4E, APPROXIMATELY 97 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH DEEP FLARING CONVECTION BUILDING ALONG THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 040758Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE PASS FURTHER REVEALS AN IMPROVED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE CHARACTERIZED BY FORMATIVE BANDING IN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. A 041144Z PARTIAL ASCAT-B PASS REVEALS AN ELONGATED BUT IMPROVING CIRCULATION WITH A SWATH OF 15-20 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. INVEST 98W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT, DEFINED BY ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW (5-10KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN CONDUCIVE AT A WARM 30C. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 98W WILL HAVE GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT AS IT MEANDERS POLEWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 98W WILL HAVE GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT AS IT MEANDERS POLEWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC/SOUTH CHINA SEA: INVEST 99W. ESTIMATED LOCATION AND INTENSITY AT 041200UTC.
