Invest 97W and Invest 98W: up-dates at 29/12utc

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 116.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 116.5E, APPROXIMATELY 505 KM WEST-NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 290535Z AMSR2 89GHZ PASS DEPICT A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH CONVECTION EXTENDING ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES OF THE LLC, CHARACTERISTIC OF A MONSOON DEPRESSION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY; STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10- 15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE BUT GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 97W WILL GENERALLY TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AS IT BEGINS TO DEVELOP. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.7N 130.5E, APPROXIMATELY 1090 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA, JAPAN. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 290801Z SSMIS 91GHZ PASS DEPICTS FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING OFFSET TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF A BROAD, ILL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY; MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THAT 98W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AS IT BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.