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JTWC IS ISSUING 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON INVEST 97W AND INVEST 96S.
WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN: INVEST 97W. ESTIMATED LOCATION AND INTENSITY AT 14/18UTC.ADVISORY(ABPW) ISSUED AT 14/06UTC.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.7N 125.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.0N 127.1E, APPROXIMATELY 101 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF DAVAO, PHILIPPINES. AN ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGE AND NUMEROUS SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DEPICT A LOOSELY ORGANIZED, BROAD MONSOON DEPRESSION LIKE SYSTEM WITH 15-20 KNOT WINDS AND CENTRALLY LOCATED CONVECTION ALOFT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH ROBUST OUTFLOW AND STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VWS, AND WARM 28-29C SST. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF A MONSOON DEPRESSION THAT REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
2023-01-14 18:00 8.1 126.2 15
2023-01-14 12:00 8.1 126.7 15
2023-01-14 06:00 8.0 127.1 15
2023-01-14 00:00 7.7 127.6 15
2023-01-13 18:00 7.1 127.7 15
2023-01-13 12:00 9.0 124.6 15
2023-01-13 06:00 9.5 124.6 15
2023-01-13 00:00 9.7 125.1 15
2023-01-12 18:00 8.8 127.1 15
2023-01-12 12:00 7.9 127.9 15
2023-01-12 06:00 8.3 128.3 15
2023-01-12 00:00 9.6 128.7 15
2023-01-11 18:00 9.2 129.1 15
2023-01-11 12:00 9.5 129.0 15
2023-01-11 06:00 9.4 129.9 15
2023-01-11 00:00 9.5 130.7 15
2023-01-10 18:00 8.7 131.3 15
2023-01-10 12:00 7.7 132.0 15
2023-01-10 06:00 6.4 132.5 15
2023-01-10 00:00 4.7 131.9 15
2023-01-09 18:00 4.6 131.8 15
2023-01-09 12:00 4.2 131.6 15
2023-01-09 06:00 3.9 131.8 15
2023-01-09 00:00 3.5 131.7 15
2023-01-08 18:00 4.4 130.9 15
2023-01-08 12:00 4.3 131.9 15
2023-01-14 12:00 8.1 126.7 15
2023-01-14 06:00 8.0 127.1 15
2023-01-14 00:00 7.7 127.6 15
2023-01-13 18:00 7.1 127.7 15
2023-01-13 12:00 9.0 124.6 15
2023-01-13 06:00 9.5 124.6 15
2023-01-13 00:00 9.7 125.1 15
2023-01-12 18:00 8.8 127.1 15
2023-01-12 12:00 7.9 127.9 15
2023-01-12 06:00 8.3 128.3 15
2023-01-12 00:00 9.6 128.7 15
2023-01-11 18:00 9.2 129.1 15
2023-01-11 12:00 9.5 129.0 15
2023-01-11 06:00 9.4 129.9 15
2023-01-11 00:00 9.5 130.7 15
2023-01-10 18:00 8.7 131.3 15
2023-01-10 12:00 7.7 132.0 15
2023-01-10 06:00 6.4 132.5 15
2023-01-10 00:00 4.7 131.9 15
2023-01-09 18:00 4.6 131.8 15
2023-01-09 12:00 4.2 131.6 15
2023-01-09 06:00 3.9 131.8 15
2023-01-09 00:00 3.5 131.7 15
2023-01-08 18:00 4.4 130.9 15
2023-01-08 12:00 4.3 131.9 15
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GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF A MONSOON DEPRESSION THAT REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.
SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN: INVEST 96S. ESTIMATED LOCATION AND INTENSITY AT 14/18UTC. ADVISORY(ABIO) ISSUED AT 14/1930UTC.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.6S 80.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.8S 79.8E, APPROXIMATELY 438 NM EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A LOW- LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP FLARING CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST. A 141508Z AMSU-B 89GHZ IMAGE REVEALS WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOOSELY DEFINED LLCC WITH THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION OFFSET TO THE WEST. RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA REVEALS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH A LARGE SWATH OF 20 KNOTS WINDS IN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN QUADRANT AND A SWATH OF 25 KNOT WINDS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC. INVEST 96S IS CURRENTLY UNDER AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25KT) VWS, HOWEVER STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (28-29C) SST REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 96S WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS BEFORE TAKING ON A WESTWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
2023-01-14 18:00 7.8 79.8 25
2023-01-14 12:00 7.4 79.4 25
2023-01-14 12:00 7.4 79.4 25
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ASCAT DEPICTING A DEFINED CIRCULATION.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 96S WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS BEFORE TAKING ON A WESTWARD TRACK.
SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN: INVEST 90S. ESTIMATED LOCATION AND INTENSITY AT 14/18UTC. ADVISORY(ABIO) ISSUED AT 14/1930UTC.
AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 10.0S 61.7E, APPROXIMATELY 662 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) PARTIALLY OBSCURED BY WEAK DISORGANIZED CONVECTION OVERHEAD. A 141700Z ASCAT-B PARTIAL PASS REVEALS A DEFINED BUT ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 15-20 KNOT WINDS IN THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES OF THE LLC. 90S HAS LIMITED OUTFLOW ALOFT BUT LOW (10- 15KT) VWS AND WARM (28-29C) SST ARE CONDUCIVE. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 90S WILL BE SLOW TO DEVELOP AS IT MEANDERS WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
2023-01-14 18:00 10.0 61.7 20
2023-01-14 12:00 10.1 62.0 15
2023-01-14 06:00 10.1 62.7 15
2023-01-14 00:00 8.7 55.7 15
2023-01-13 18:00 8.5 56.2 15
2023-01-14 12:00 10.1 62.0 15
2023-01-14 06:00 10.1 62.7 15
2023-01-14 00:00 8.7 55.7 15
2023-01-13 18:00 8.5 56.2 15
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 90S WILL BE SLOW TO DEVELOP AS IT MEANDERS WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.
SOUTH PACIFIC OCEAN: INVEST 99P. ESTIMATED LOCATION AND INTENSITY AT 14/06UTC.
SOUTH PACIFIC OCEAN: INVEST 98P. ESTIMATED LOCATION AND INTENSITY AT 14/06UTC.
