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JTWC IS ISSUING 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON INVEST 97S.
SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN: INVEST 97S. ESTIMATED LOCATION INTENSITY AT 12/06UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT ISSUED AT 12/08UTC.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.7S 60.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.0S 57.0E, APPROXIMATELY 437 NM NORTH OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EMBEDDED WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE LLCC. A 120159Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS FORMATIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. A 120554Z ASCAT-B PASS SHOWED A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH PREDOMINANTLY 25-30 KNOT WINDS AROUND MOST OF THE CIRCULATION, WITH WINDS UP TO 40 KNOTS ON THE WESTERN SIDE UNDER THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. THE ENVIRONMENT IS HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION GIVEN THE VERY WARM (29-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, LOW (5-10KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND STRONG DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 97S WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AS IT INTENSIFIES OVER THE NEXT 24HRS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.
9724011006 97S 614E 15
9724011012 103S 617E 15
9724011018 109S 617E 15
9724011100 115S 615E 20
9724011106 120S 604E 20
9724011112 121S 596E 25
9724011118 124S 587E 25
9724011200 128S 578E 25
9724011206 130S 570E 30
9724011012 103S 617E 15
9724011018 109S 617E 15
9724011100 115S 615E 20
9724011106 120S 604E 20
9724011112 121S 596E 25
9724011118 124S 587E 25
9724011200 128S 578E 25
9724011206 130S 570E 30
CLICK ON THE IMAGERY BELOW TO GET IT ANIMATED AND ENLARGED.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EMBEDDED WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE LLCC.
Model Diagnostic Plot
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 97S WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AS IT INTENSIFIES OVER THE NEXT 24HRS.
Multiplatform Satellite Surface Wind Analysis (Experimental)
SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN: INVEST 98S. ESTIMATED LOCATION AND INTENSITY AT 12/06UTC. ADVISORY(ABIO) ISSUED AT 12/08UTC.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.6S 92.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.5S 92.5E, APPROXIMATELY 303 NM WEST- NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. A 111204Z SSMIS COLOR37 NEAREST IMAGE LENDS A CONFIDENT LOCATION OF THE SYSTEM CENTER. THE CIRCULATION EXISTS IN A DEVELOPING SEASONAL MONSOON TROF UNDER AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AND IS BEING PROVIDED LOW LEVEL VORTICITY BY A STREAM OF MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLIES FLOWING OUT OF THE MIGRATORY ANTICYCLONES ALONG THE 30TH LATITUDE. ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS REVEALS CONVECTION HAS DEEPENED AND CONSOLIDATED SIGNIFICANTLY AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES INCREASING PROBABLILITY OF DEVELOPMENT ALONG A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK OVER THE MEDIUM RANGE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES INCREASING PROBABLILITY OF DEVELOPMENT ALONG A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK OVER THE MEDIUM RANGE.
Multiplatform Satellite Surface Wind Analysis (Experimental)
