Invest 96W: up-graded// Remnants of TC 01S//TD 08E(Georgette)// Ecmwf maps at +240h, 03/06utc

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 119.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 117.3E, APPROXIMATELY 192 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) BENEATH DEEP BUT STILL DISORGANIZED CONVECTION AND CIRRUS BLOW OFF OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST QUADRANTS OF INVEST 96W. A 030227Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS SHOWS THE LLC FORMING WITH 20 KNOT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AND TO THE SOUTHEAST, SUGGESTING A MORE CLOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF 96W WITH STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, FAVORABLE (5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND 30-31C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. FUNNELING OF THE NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN THE TAIWAN STRAIT IS ALSO IMPARTING SOME INCREASED CYCLONIC VORTICITY, INCREASING THE LIKELIHOOD OF NEAR TERM DEVELOPMENT. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT INHIBITING FACTOR IS THE PROXIMITY TO LAND AND LIMITED TIME REMAINING OVER WATER. DETERMINISTIC MODELS AGREE THAT 96W WILL RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATE INTO A DISTINCT CIRCULATION CENTER WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS, FOLLOWED BY INTENSIFICATION TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT TRACKS NORTHWESTERLY TOWARDS COASTAL CHINA. GFS IS SHOWING DEVELOPMENT WITH IT REACHING TD STRENGTH WITHIN 12-24 HOURS WHILE ECMWF AND NAVGEM AGREE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF CIRCULATION CENTER BUT LACK A DEPRESSION STRENGTH WIND FIELD. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND WEAK INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO LANDFALL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

GFS IS SHOWING DEVELOPMENT WITH IT REACHING TD STRENGTH WITHIN 12-24 HOURS WHILE ECMWF AND NAVGEM AGREE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF CIRCULATION CENTER BUT LACK A DEPRESSION STRENGTH WIND FIELD. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND WEAK INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

WTPZ43 KNHC 030234 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Georgette Discussion Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022 800 PM PDT Tue Aug 02 2022 Georgette continues to hang on to tropical cyclone status. Small bursts of convection persist to the southwest of the partially exposed low-level center. Since the convective organization has not changed, the initial intensity remains at 30 kts, slightly below the subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates. Moderate northeasterly to northerly shear is expected over the next few days. This vertical wind shear combined with the drier surrounding environment and gradually cooling sea surface temperatures are likely to cause Georgette to become a remnant low in a day or two. There were no updates to the intensity forecast this cycle. The system is moving north-northeastward at about 6 kt into the weakness in the subtropical ridge caused by Post-Tropical Cyclone Frank. Within about a day, the low-level ridge should begin building back and turn Georgette westward as well as increase its forward speed. The NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous track prediction and close to the various consensus model aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 15.3N 130.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 16.1N 129.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 17.0N 130.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 17.6N 131.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/0000Z 17.9N 132.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 05/1200Z 17.9N 134.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci/Berg