Invest 96B: TCFA// Invest 96S has not surrendered yet//Invest 92W//Invest 99L// 06/09utc

JTWC IS ISSUING 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON INVEST 96B AND INVEST 96S.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.7N 91.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.6N 89.0E, APPROXIMATELY 608 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WHICH IS BEING PARTIALLY OBSCURED BY FLARING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, WHICH BEGINNING TO EXHIBIT FORMATIVE WRAPPING. A 06230Z SCATTEROMETER PASS REVEALED A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER WITH 25-30 KNOT WINDS SURROUNDING THE LLCC, AND PROVIDING GOOD CONFIDENCE TO BOTH THE POSITION AND INTENSITY ESTIMATES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD AND WESTWARD DIVERGENT OUTFLOW ALOFT, WARM (29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), AND LOW TO MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (VWS) ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 96B WILL CONTINUE ON A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF INDIA WHILE GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING UP TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 96B WILL CONTINUE ON A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF INDIA WHILE GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING UP TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.

ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICT FLARING CONVECTION COMPLETELY OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 06433Z ASCAT METOP-B SCATTEROMETER BULLSEYE REVEALED A WINDFIELD OF 25-30 KNOT WINDS ON THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRESUMED LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MODERATE CONDITIONS FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH WEAK RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT AIDED BY A SMALL POINT SOURCE ABOVE IT AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTH, WARM (27-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), AND LOW TO MODERATE (15- 20KT) VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (VWS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 96S WILL CONTINUE ON A WESTWARD TRACK AND SLOWLY BE ENGULFED BY INTENSE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO LOW.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 96S WILL CONTINUE ON A WESTWARD TRACK AND SLOWLY BE ENGULFED BY INTENSE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 96S WILL CONTINUE ON A WESTWARD TRACK AND SLOWLY BE ENGULFED BY INTENSE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT.

Special Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 830 PM EST Mon Dec 5 2022 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential for subtropical development this week over the central Atlantic. 1. Central Subtropical Atlantic: A large and complex area of low pressure located over the central subtropical Atlantic about 800 miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands continues to produce a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for this system to acquire some subtropical or tropical characteristics while it meanders generally northeastward during the next few days. By Friday, the low is expected to move over cooler waters and interact with a mid-latitude trough, limiting potential of tropical transition after that time. Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 9 AM EST Tuesday, or earlier, if necessary. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php Forecaster Papin