Invest 94B Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert//02P(MAL) becoming extratropical//Invest 97W//Invest 98W//3 Week GTHO maps//1609utc

JTWC IS ISSUING 3HOURLY WARNINGS ON INVEST 94B AND THE REMNANTS OF TC 02P(MAL) AND THE REMNANTS OF TD 17W.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 86.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 87.4E, APPROXIMATELY 279 NM SOUTH OF KOLKATA, INDIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION NOW SHEARED OFF THE NORTHEAST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 94B IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, OFFSET BY HIGH (25-30 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 94B WILL TRACK NORTH- NORTHEASTWARD AND CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY BEFORE INTERACTING WITH LAND WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 94B WILL TRACK NORTH- NORTHEASTWARD AND CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY BEFORE INTERACTING WITH LAND WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (RMNTS 17W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.1N 139.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.8N 136.8E, APPROXIMATELY 160 NM SOUTHEAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED, HIGHLY ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) ACCOMPANIED BY DISORGANIZED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN A MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET BY HIGH (30-40 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAK OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK IN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION WITH LITTLE TO NO DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 17 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK IN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION WITH LITTLE TO NO DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS.

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.8N 154.8E, APPROXIMATELY 174 NM EAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AN 110348Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD AREA OF TURNING ACCOMPANIED BY AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST. ENVIRONMENT ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BRIEFLY INTERACT WITH THE REMNANT VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH INVEST 97W, AND THEN MOVE OUT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WHILE STEADILY DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT 24-48HRS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BRIEFLY INTERACT WITH THE REMNANT VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH INVEST 97W, AND THEN MOVE OUT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WHILE STEADILY DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT 24-48HRS.

GTH Outlook Discussion Last Updated - 11/14/23 Valid - 11/22/23 - 12/05/23 El Nino and a positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (+IOD) continue to be the major influences on global tropical rainfall. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) began to constructively interfere with El Nino during early November. The 200-hpa velocity potential field depicts strong upper-level divergence over the west-central Pacific and the RMM-based MJO index recently increased in amplitude. Dynamical models remain consistent and in good agreement that the MJO propagates eastward over the Western Hemisphere and shifts to the Indian Ocean by the end of November. A very strong Westerly Wind Burst (WWB) is observed in the low-level wind field to the northeast of Papua New Guinea. This WWB may strengthen El Nino and also warm the sea surface temperatures and enhance convection to the east of the Date Line. Tropical Cyclone (TC) Mal developed across the South Pacific on November 13 and is forecast to track over or near Fiji on November 14. A weak TC formed in the West Pacific on November 13 but is quickly dissipating. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring a broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. As of 1pm EST on Nov 14, NHC states there is a 70 percent chance of TC development in this region during the next week. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall may affect the Caribbean coast of Central America and the Greater Antilles. Please refer to the NHC for the latest updates on this potential TC. Although an eastward propagating MJO over the Western Hemisphere would elevate chances for another late season TC across the Caribbean Sea, a lack of model support precludes designation of a favored TC area during week-2 (Nov 22-28). By the end of November, genesis climatology diminishes for the Atlantic basin. Dynamical model guidance and a predicted equatorial Rossby wave support a broad 20 percent chance of TC development from the West Pacific westward to the South China Sea and Bay of Bengal. There is likely to be one or two TCs within this 20 percent chance area during the next two weeks. Since the TCs may form prior to week-2, only a 20 percent chance of development is designated for week-2. MJO composites and dynamical model guidance support a 20 percent chance of TC development across the Arabian Sea and southwestern Pacific for week-3 (Nov 29-Dec 5). The precipitation outlook for weeks 2 and 3 (November 22 - December 5) are based on a historical skill weighted blend of the GEFS, CFS, ECCC, and ECMWF models, the influence from El Nino and a +IOD, and MJO precipitation composites (phases 1, 2, and 3). The +IOD along with the enhanced phase of the MJO shifting east is likely to maintain above-average rainfall and a flooding risk for parts of Africa. Below-average precipitation and above-normal temperatures are favored for southern Brazil from late November into the beginning of December.