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WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC: INVEST 93W. ESTIMATED LOCATION AND INTENSITY AT 01/18UTC. ADVISORY(ABPW) ISSUED AT 01/14UTC.
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AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.8N 132.3E, APPROXIMATELY 400 NM EAST OF DAVAO, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 010931Z SSMIS 91GHZ SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICTS FRAGMENTED BUT ORGANIZING CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE BROAD LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS 93W TO HAVE GENERALLY GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, LOW VWS (5-10KTS) AND WARM SSTS (30-31C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93W WILL TRACK GENERALLY WEST NORTHWESTWARD AND CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93W WILL TRACK GENERALLY WEST NORTHWESTWARD AND CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN: INVEST 90S. ESTIMATED LOCATION AND INTENSITY AT 01/12UTC.
