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Invest 93P: up-graded to MEDIUM, development likely// Invest 95W now on the map//TC 02S(TERATAI): Final Warning, 09/09utc





SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE/SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN: WARNING 6/FINAL ISSUED AT 09/09UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (TERATAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 525 KM SOUTHWEST OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A SIX-HOUR ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A WEAKENED CENTRAL CONVECTION THAT HAS BECOME MORE OFFSET FROM A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MSI LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30KTS, EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 090242Z ASCAT PASS SHOWING MAXIMUM WIND BARBS OF 20KTS WITHIN THE TRAILING SEMI-CIRCLE, IS HELD HIGHER THAN THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T1.5/25KTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE HAS DRIFTED INTO COOLER (26C) SST AND STRONG (25KT+) RELATIVE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME CROSS-PHASED WITH THE STORM MOTION. TC 02S HAS WEAKENED TO BELOW THE JTWC WARNING THRESHOLD AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO RECOVER. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (TERATAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 525 KM SOUTHWEST OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A SIX-HOUR ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A WEAKENED CENTRAL CONVECTION THAT HAS BECOME MORE OFFSET FROM A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MSI LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30KTS, EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 090242Z ASCAT PASS SHOWING MAXIMUM WIND BARBS OF 20KTS WITHIN THE TRAILING SEMI-CIRCLE, IS HELD HIGHER THAN THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T1.5/25KTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE HAS DRIFTED INTO COOLER (26C) SST AND STRONG (25KT+) RELATIVE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME CROSS-PHASED WITH THE STORM MOTION. TC 02S HAS WEAKENED TO BELOW THE JTWC WARNING THRESHOLD AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO RECOVER. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI.
0221112912  67S1009E  15
0221112918  67S1012E  15
0221113000  68S1017E  20
0221113006  69S1021E  15
0221113012  76S1026E  25
0221113018  80S1028E  35
0221120100  88S1028E  35
0221120106  91S1022E  40
0221120112  97S1019E  40
0221120118  99S1016E  35
0221120200 100S1011E  30
0221120206  98S1008E  25
0221120212  92S1006E  25
0221120218  91S 999E  25
0221120300  89S 991E  25
0221120306  90S 985E  25
0221120312  86S 981E  25
0221120318  86S 973E  25
0221120400  85S 969E  25
0221120406  83S 966E  25
0221120412  79S 967E  25
0221120418  74S 977E  25
0221120500  74S 983E  25
0221120506  79S 990E  20
0221120512  83S1003E  20
0221120518  85S1014E  20
0221120600  86S1026E  20
0221120606  87S1040E  25
0221120612  91S1051E  25
0221120618  96S1059E  30
0221120700 101S1063E  30
0221120706 108S1065E  30
0221120712 114S1065E  30
0221120718 120S1066E  35
0221120800 125S1063E  35
0221120806 131S1058E  35
0221120812 136S1052E  35
0221120818 141S1043E  35
0221120900 143S1036E  35
0221120906 143S1029E  30
NNNN
 


SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE/SOUTH PACIFIC: INVEST 93P UP-GRADED TO MEDIUM AT 09/06UTC.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.7S 156.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.4S 155.0E, APPROXIMATELY 865 KM EAST OF PORT MORESBY, PAPUA NEW GUINEA. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 090312Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT DISORGANIZED FLARING CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE CIRCULATION IS IN AN AREA OF MARGINALLY FAVORABLE DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY WARM SST (30-31C) AND LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE OUTFLOW IS NOTABLE WITH ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW FEEDING INTO THE JET TO THE SOUTH. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL GENERALLY TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AND CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.7S 156.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.4S 155.0E, APPROXIMATELY 865 KM EAST OF PORT MORESBY, PAPUA NEW GUINEA. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 090312Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT DISORGANIZED FLARING CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE CIRCULATION IS IN AN AREA OF MARGINALLY FAVORABLE DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY WARM SST (30-31C) AND LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE OUTFLOW IS NOTABLE WITH ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW FEEDING INTO THE JET TO THE SOUTH. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL GENERALLY TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AND CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL GENERALLY TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AND CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL GENERALLY TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AND CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC/PHILIPPINE SEA: INVEST 95W. ADDED TO THE JTWC MAP AT 09/06UTC.

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 4.6N 142.4E, APPROXIMATELY 650 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) FLARING CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE CIRCULATION IS IN AN AREA OF MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS DEFINED BY FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, OFFSET BY WARM SST (30-31C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 95W WILL TRACK WESTWARD AND DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS HOWEVER, THE MODELS DISAGREE ON THE TIME 95W WILL REACH TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH WITH GFS PRESENTING THE MOST AGRESSIVE FORECAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 4.6N 142.4E, APPROXIMATELY 650 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) FLARING CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE CIRCULATION IS IN AN AREA OF MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS DEFINED BY FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, OFFSET BY WARM SST (30-31C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 95W WILL TRACK WESTWARD AND DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS HOWEVER, THE MODELS DISAGREE ON THE TIME 95W WILL REACH TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH WITH GFS PRESENTING THE MOST AGRESSIVE FORECAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

THE MODELS DISAGREE ON THE TIME 95W WILL REACH TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH WITH GFS PRESENTING THE MOST AGRESSIVE FORECAST.
THE MODELS DISAGREE ON THE TIME 95W WILL REACH TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH WITH GFS PRESENTING THE MOST AGRESSIVE FORECAST.

SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE/NORTHERN AUSTRALIA: INVEST 94S. THIS SYSTEM IS VERY WEAK AT THE MOMENT. IT IS NOT ON THE JTWC MAP YET. KEEPING TABS ON IT SINCE MODELS HINT AT DEVELOPMENT AT MEDIUM RANGE.





GFS AT +72H.

Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Thursday, December 9th 2021 à 13:06
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