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JTWC IS ISSUING 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON INVEST 91P, INVEST 99P AND ON THE OVER-LAND REMNANTS OF TC 11S(FREDDY).
SOUTH PACIFIC OCEAN: INVEST 91P. ESTIMATED LOCATION AND INTENSITY AT 13/06UTC.
9123031206 181S1738W 30
9123031212 184S1732W 30
9123031218 185S1726W 30
9123031300 186S1720W 30
9123031306 187S1716W 30
9123031212 184S1732W 30
9123031218 185S1726W 30
9123031300 186S1720W 30
9123031306 187S1716W 30
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT ISSUED AT 13/0130UTC.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.6S 173.1W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.7S 171.6W, APPROXIMATELY 270 NM SOUTH OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH DEEP FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH NEAR RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (5-10KT) VWS, AND WARM (28-29C) SST. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 91P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT GRADUALLY DEVELOPS OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 91P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT GRADUALLY DEVELOPS OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.
SOUTH PACIFIC OCEAN: INVEST 90P. ESTIMATED LOCATION AND INTENSITY AT 13/06UTC.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.6S 169.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.8S 167.0E, APPROXIMATELY 92 NM NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A RECENT ASCAT METOP-C PASS DEPICT A DISORGANIZED LOW- LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH SHALLOW CONVECTION. A 130030Z GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS FRAGMENTED CONVECTION AROUND THE CIRCULATION. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH NEAR RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE (10-20KT) VWS, AND WARM (28-29C) SST. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 91P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWARD AS IT GRADUALLY DEVELOPS OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 91P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWARD AS IT GRADUALLY DEVELOPS OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.
SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN: OVER-LAND REMNANTS OF TC 11S(FREDDY). ESTIMATED LOCATION AND INTENSITY AT 13/06UTC.
ESTIMATED PEAK INTENSITY WAS 145 KNOTS CATEGORY 5 US.
SOUTH PACIFIC OCEAN: INVEST 99P. ESTIMATED LOCATION AND INTENSITY AT 13/06UTC.
