Invest 90S is forecast to enter a FUJIWHARA state with Invest 96S and be eventually absorbed//1618utc, 1700utc update

JTWC IS ISSUING 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON INVEST 96S.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE COMING TOGETHER ON SHOWING THE TWO HAVING A FUJIWHARA EFFECT ON ONE ANOTHER WITH 96S WINNING OUT AND ABSORBING 90S OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BEFORE HEADING TOWARDS MADAGASCAR.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.7S 60.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.2S 57.6E, APPROXIMATELY 543 NM NORTH OF MAURITIUS, LA REUNION. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN QUADRANT AND FLARING CONVECTION OBSCURING THE CENTER. A 161440Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE CONFIRMS FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLC FROM THE SOUTHWEST. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A BUBBLE OF LOW (5-10KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AROUND THE LLC WITH HIGH (25-30KT) VWS ALONG THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN EDGES OF THE SYSTEM. OTHER ENVIRONMENTALS SUGGEST FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH WARM 28-29C SSTS AND STRONG VORTICITY SIGNATURES ON THE 850MB CHARTS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 90S WILL ENTER A FUJIWHARA STATE WITH 96S AND BECOME ABSORBED WITHIN IT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.9S 77.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.5S 72.1E, APPROXIMATELY 311 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LLC WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY AS WELL AS OVER THE LLC. A 161303Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE PARTIAL PASS, DEPICTS THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LLC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS 96S HAS A SLIGHTLY LARGER BUBBLE OF LOW (5-10KT) VWS WITH THE EXTENT OF THE MORE UNFAVORABLE AREAS OF SHEAR FURTHER AWAY TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH. OTHER ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS SSTS IN THE AREA ARE WARM 28-29C, AND VORTICITY SIGNATURES ARE CONTINUING TO INCREASE. LIKE 90S, GLOBAL MODELS ARE COMING TOGETHER ON SHOWING THE TWO HAVING A FUJIWHARA EFFECT ON ONE ANOTHER WITH 96S WINNING OUT AND ABSORBING 90S OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BEFORE HEADING TOWARDS MADAGASCAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 17.2S 157.4E, APPROXIMATELY 596 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 161702Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING ON THE OUTER PERIPHERIES OF THE WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WHICH IS EASILY IDENTIFIED BY THE BULLSEYE PASS FROM A 162221Z ASCAT METOP-B. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (27-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTLFOW, AND LOW (5-10KT) VWS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 91P WILL MOVE TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.