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JTWC IS ISSUING 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON INVEST 90B.
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NORTH INDIAN OCEAN/BAY OF BENGAL: INVEST 90B. ESTIMATED LOCATION AND INTENSITY AT 31/06UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT ISSUED AT 31/03UTC.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.2N 82.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.5N 84.5E, APPROXIMATELY 291.7 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 302221Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS FLARING CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO A FULLY OBSCURED, GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATING LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR INTENSIFICATION AS INDICATED BY LOW TO MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, OFFSET BY WARM (28-29C) SST, IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND A FAVORABLE MJO SIGNAL WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE REGION. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 90B WILL CONTINUE WEST AND MAKE LANDFALL OVER SRI LANKA WITHIN 36 HOURS. DESPITE THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THERE REMAINS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT THE SYSTEM COULD REACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH PRIOR TO LANDFALL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 90B WILL CONTINUE WEST AND MAKE LANDFALL OVER SRI LANKA WITHIN 36 HOURS. DESPITE THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THERE REMAINS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT THE SYSTEM COULD REACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN: INVEST 94S. ESTIMATED LOCATION AND INTENSITY AT 31/06UTC. ADVISORY(ABIO ) ISSUED AT 31/0330UTC.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.8S 94.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.9S 93.6E, APPROXIMATELY 167 NM WEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST OF A GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATING LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR INTENSIFICATION DUE TO HIGH (25-30KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, OFFSET BY WARM (27-28C) SST, AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 94S WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ALONG A WESTERLY TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 94S WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ALONG A WESTERLY TRACK.
SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN: INVEST 95S. ESTIMATED LOCATION AND INTENSITY AT 31/06UTC.
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ECMWF ENSEMBLE AT 31/00UTC UP TO +240H.
ECMWF ENSEMBLE AT 31/00UTC UP TO +240H.
