Intensifying TC 05S(BELAL) is forecast to track dangerously close to REUNION island(possibly over) by 24h// Invest 98S//Invest 99S//1415utc

JTWC IS ISSUING 12HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON TC 05S(BELAL) AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON INVEST 98S.

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: DESPITE INCREASING PRESSURE FROM SUBTROPICAL UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM, TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE DUE IN LARGE PART TO STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT CORE WITH A FORMATIVE EYE. A 140957Z AMSR2 37 GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A SMALL CORE SURROUNDING A SMALL, WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AMSR2 IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 85 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 77 TO 90 KNOTS AS WELL AS A 140957Z AMSR2 WINDSPEED IMAGE, WHICH INDICATES MAXIMUM WINDS OF 85 KNOTS OVER THE EASTERN QUADRANT.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 05S IS TRACKING SOUTHWARD BUT IS EXPECTED TO TURN SHARPLY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE STR WEAKENS AND REORIENTS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS BY TAU 12 UNDER GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BEFORE DRY AIR ENTRAINS INTO THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR, STEADY WEAKENING TO 70 KNOTS IS ANTICIPATED BY TAU 72 DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. AFTER TAU 72, TC 05S WILL SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY WITHIN A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING TO THE WEST AND EAST, EFFECTIVELY BLOCKING EASTWARD PROGRESSION. AS TC 05S SLOWS AND TURNS NORTHEASTWARD, VWS SHOULD DECREASE WITH RE-MOISTENING OF THE CORE ALLOWING FOR SLIGHT RE- INTENSIFICATION BY TAU 120.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 WITH A 35 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 48 DIVERGING TO 110 NM AT TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE DIVERGES WITH INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK. RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE BRIEF PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION WITH HAFS-A SHOWING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 97 KNOTS AT TAU 12. INTENSITY GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH INCREASING SPREAD AFTER TAU 72.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.5S 93.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.8S 94.1E, APPROXIMATELY 181 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 141151Z GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A DEFINED, EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION IN THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY THAT IS BEGINNING TO BUILD OVER THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 98S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 98S WILL BE QUASI- STATIONARY AS IT CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 98S WILL BE QUASI- STATIONARY AS IT CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 15.5S 130.0E, APPROXIMATELY 102 NM EAST OF WYNDHAM, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 140941Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT AN ORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN QUADRANTS. ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUPPORT THE CURRENT POSITION NEAR THE COAST AND CONFIRM A QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM POINT FAWCETT, TO THE NORTH, INDICATE 20 TO 25 KNOT WESTERLIES WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 KNOTS, HOWEVER, CORE WINDS ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KNOTS. WHILE THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY OVER LAND, IT IS VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST AND WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE TRANSITION OVER WATER. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE WITH ROBUST OUTFLOW ALOFT AND LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OVER LAND ARE HINDERING DEVELOPMENT BUT SURFACE PRESSURE VALUES ARE CLIMATOLOGICALLY LOW AT 997 MB. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 99S WILL REMAIN NEAR THE COAST OF AUSTRALIA OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WITH LITTLE INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 99S WILL REMAIN NEAR THE COAST OF AUSTRALIA OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WITH LITTLE INTENSIFICATION.