Intensifying TC 05S(BELAL) is forecast to hit REUNION island as a very dangerous CAT 3 US by 36h// Invest 98S// 1403utc

JTWC IS ISSUING 12HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON TC 05S(BELAL).

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING TROPICAL CYCLONE AS CONTINUOUS CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES ENCIRCLE THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED SPIRAL BANDING AND AN OBSERVABLE AND COMPACT CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) OBSCURING THE RECENTLY FORMED EYE. A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE 132338Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND VALIDATES THE FORMATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED EYE FEATURE. THE MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING, PRIMARILY AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 70 KNOTS BASED ON THE PGTW, FMEE, AND DEMS DVORAK ESTIMATES. CIMSS OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE RISEN THROUGH THE LAST SIX HOURS, AND RANGE FROM 61-77 KNOTS.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (BELAL) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ITS SLOW MOVEMENT TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 12 AS IT CRESTS THE STR AXIS. AFTERWARD, TC BELAL WILL SHARPLY TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE STR WEAKENS AND THE WESTERLIES SHIFT OVER MADAGASCAR. TC BELAL IS UNDERGOING RAPID INTENSIFICATION AT THIS TIME, AND WILL CONTINUE UNDER VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS UNTIL TAU 36. SLIGHT WEAKENING WILL BEGIN AT TAU 48 DUE TO A SLIGHT INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRENGTHENING SUB TROPICAL WESTERLIES AND INCREASED DRY AIR ENTERTAINMENT WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. TC BELAL WILL TRACK TO THE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 120 ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED STR POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST. ALTHOUGH REINTENSIFICATION IS NOT FORECASTED AT THIS TIME, AN INCREASE IN THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES WILL SLOW DISSIPATION OF TC BELAL TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO TAU 120.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48 WITH A 65 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES WITH INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE JTWC AND CONSENSUS FORECAST TRACKS. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVEMENT SPEED NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS COMPETING STEERING MECHANISMS INCREASE.