Intense TC 08S(BATSIRAI): CAT 3 US making landfall near Mananjary/Madagascar//TC 10S(CLIFF): weakening, 05/15utc

JTWC IS ISSUING 12HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON TC 08S(BATSIRAI) AND TC 10S(CLIFF).

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 08S IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN THE NEXT SIX HOURS AND WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF MADAGASCAR. TC 08S WILL REEMERGE OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL NEAR 30H BUT WILL ENCOUNTER MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT OFFSET BY FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY INTENSIFY TO 50 KNOTS AT 72H. NEAR 96H, TC 08S IS FORECAST TO RECURVE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR BUT WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A SUBTROPICAL LOW AND WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS OVER COOL SST (23-25C) AND ENCOUNTERS STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (30-40 KNOTS) ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES.

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A 45KM ROUND EYE AND ITS OVERALL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE DESPITE THE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF MADAGASCAR. A 051022Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS SOME EROSION OF THE EYEWALL AND SPIRAL BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, LIKELY DUE TO MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, HOWEVER THE EYEWALL AND SPIRAL BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE ARE UNAFFECTED. DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE REMAINED LARGELY STATIC WITH PGTW AND FMEE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 5.5 (102 KNOTS) AND CIMSS SATCON AND ADT ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 107-109 KNOTS SUPPORTING THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100 KTS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MANANJARY (NEAR 21.2S 48.3E), APPROXIMATELY 62NM WSW OF THE CENTER, HAVE STRENGTHENED QUICKLY TO 70 KNOTS WITH SLP NEAR 987MB. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EIR IMAGERY.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 72H WITH A 195KM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT 72H THUS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THROUGH 72H. AFTER 72H, THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN TRACK SPEED WITH GREATER ALONG-TRACK SPREAD THUS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE JTWC INTENSITY CONSENSUS (ICNW) CLOSER TO THE HWRF INTENSITY FORECAST.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 10S (CLIFF) IS FORECAST TO TURN SHARPLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT TRANSITIONS TO THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. ALTHOUGH THE STR WILL REORIENT WITH THE APPROACH OF A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. DUE TO THE SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT IN THE MID-LEVELS AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), TC 10S WILL CONTINUE TO DECAY AND IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY 48H.

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN INCREASINGLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH LOW LEVEL CLOUD BANDS WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO THE LLCC. A 050300Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN SHEARED TO THE SOUTH AND THAT THE LLCC NOW LIES UNDER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON MSI AND MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A BLEND OF THE PGTW, FMEE AND FIMP DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATES AND THE FINAL-T ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.0 (30 KNOTS)-T2.5 (35 KNOTS) THAT REFLECT THE WEAKENING, FRAGMENTED STRUCTURE.

MODEL DISCUSSION: WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH 48H WITH AN 160KM SPREAD AT 48H SUPPORTING THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. IN GENERAL, RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWING A STEADY WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS (ICNW).