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JTWC IS ISSUING 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON INVEST 92B AND INVEST 90S.
NORTH INDIAN OCEAN/BAY OF BENGAL: INVEST 92B. LOCATION AND MAXIMUM WINDS ESTIMATED AT 06/06UTC.ADVISORY(ABIO) ISSUED AT 06/0130UTC.CLICK ON THE IMAGERY BELOW TO GET IT ENLARGED.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.9N 93.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.7N 92.7E, APPROXIMATELY 330 KM SOUTH OF PORT BLAIR. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 052229Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE REVEAL DEEP BUT BROAD DISORGANIZED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE INVEST IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE (15-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 92B WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND GRADUALLY ORGANIZE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15-20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
IO, 92, 2022050506,70N, 945E, 15
IO, 92, 2022050512,75N, 943E, 15
IO, 92, 2022050518,79N, 941E, 15
IO, 92, 2022050600,83N, 936E, 20
IO, 92, 2022050606,87N, 930E, 20
IO, 92, 2022050512,75N, 943E, 15
IO, 92, 2022050518,79N, 941E, 15
IO, 92, 2022050600,83N, 936E, 20
IO, 92, 2022050606,87N, 930E, 20
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GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 92B WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND GRADUALLY ORGANIZE.
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SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN: INVEST 90S. LOCATION AND MAXIMUM WINDS ESTIMATED AT 06/06UTC.ADVISORY(ABIO) ISSUED AT 06/0130UTC.CLICK ON THE IMAGERY BELOW TO GET IT ENLARGED.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.2S 86.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.1S 88.0E, APPROXIMATELY 1170 KM NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 052230Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE REVEAL FLARING DEEP CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE AREA WRAPPING INTO A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE INVEST IS IN A FAVORABLE AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH DECENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31C) AND LOW (5- 10KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE PREDICTS THE INVEST WILL TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AND GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15-20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
SH, 90, 2022050506,52S, 873E, 20
SH, 90, 2022050512,51S, 875E, 20
SH, 90, 2022050518,53S, 877E, 20
SH, 90, 2022050600,56S, 877E, 20
SH, 90, 2022050606,59S, 877E, 25
SH, 90, 2022050512,51S, 875E, 20
SH, 90, 2022050518,53S, 877E, 20
SH, 90, 2022050600,56S, 877E, 20
SH, 90, 2022050606,59S, 877E, 25
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GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE PREDICTS THE INVEST WILL TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AND GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
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ECMWF ENSEMBLE AT 06/00UTC UP TO +240H.CLICK ON THE IMAGERY BELOW TO GET IT ENLARGED.
ECMWF ENSEMBLE AT 06/00UTC UP TO +240H.CLICK ON THE IMAGERY BELOW TO GET IT ENLARGED.
LIKELY UP-COMING DEVELOPING INVEST AREA ACROSS THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC.CLICK ON THE IMAGERY BELOW TO GET IT ENLARGED.
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