INVEST 96W likely to develop next 48h//INVEST 97A//INVEST 94S//1915utc

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 138.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 138.1E, APPROXIMATELY 385 NM WEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ELONGATED SYSTEM WITH A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) BOUNDED BY FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES. A 191136Z ASCAT METOP-B 25KM SCATTEROMETERY PASS REVEALS THAT INVEST 96W HAS MODERATE WINDS (15-20KTS) FROM THE NORTHEAST AND A BAND OF 10-15 KNOT WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WRAP IN TO THE LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INVEST 96W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW (LESS THAN 15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 96W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND CONSOLIDATE QUICKLY OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.

NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 96W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND CONSOLIDATE QUICKLY OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS.