INVEST 95P up-graded to MEDIUM// OVERLAND Remnants of TC 07P(KIRRILY)//INVEST 94P// 0409utc

JTWC IS ISSUING 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON THE OVERLAND REMNANTS OF TC 07P(KIRRILY) AND ON INVEST 94P.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.8S 174.4W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.2S 172.2W, APPROXIMATELY 105 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THAT WHILE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS RATHER BROAD, IT IS CONSOLIDATING QUICKLY, PRIMARILY FOCUSED IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LARGER CIRCULATION. DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED OVER AND NORTH OF THE PERCEIVED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), ENHANCED BY A LINE OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. A 040000Z PHASE CLASSIFICATION WORKSHEET SHOWED RESULTS OF INVEST 95P BEING MORE TROPICAL IN NATURE, WHICH IS VALIDATED BY THE CURRENT UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS PROVE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT CHARACTERIZED BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT (AIDED BY A POINT SOURCE TO THE NORTHEAST), LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT GFS WITH ITS USUAL FORWARD LEANING CALCULATIONS HAS INITIALIZED THE BEST CONCERNING DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. THE OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS AGREES INVEST 95P WILL CONTINUE ON A EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK IN THE NEAR-TERM, THEN QUICKLY FLATTEN OUT TO A EASTWARD TRACK, REMAINING SOUTH OF AMERICAN SAMOA, THEN BY TAU 24 MAKE AN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TURN GENERALLY TOWARDS FRENCH POLYNESIA. GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM SLIDES EAST OF AMERICAN SAMOA AND CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SYSTEM STRUGGLING TO GET PAST 25 KNOTS WITH A PEAK OF 30KTS. THOUGH INTENSITY GUIDANCE DOES NOT LIKE THE SYSTEM AS MUCH, IT IS STILL A SLEEPER THAT SHOULD NOT BE OVER LOOKED WITH IT BEING EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SPCZ. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

THE OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS AGREES INVEST 95P WILL CONTINUE ON A EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK IN THE NEAR-TERM, THEN QUICKLY FLATTEN OUT TO A EASTWARD TRACK, REMAINING SOUTH OF AMERICAN SAMOA, THEN BY TAU 24 MAKE AN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TURN GENERALLY TOWARDS FRENCH POLYNESIA. GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM SLIDES EAST OF AMERICAN SAMOA AND CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SYSTEM STRUGGLING TO GET PAST 25 KNOTS WITH A PEAK OF 30KTS. THOUGH INTENSITY GUIDANCE DOES NOT LIKE THE SYSTEM AS MUCH, IT IS STILL A SLEEPER THAT SHOULD NOT BE OVER LOOKED WITH IT BEING EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SPCZ.