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JTWC IS ISSUING 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON INVEST 94W.
WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC: INVEST 94W. ESTIMATED LOCATION AND INTENSITY AT 0606UTC. INTENSITY IS 20 KNOTS.
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT ISSUED AT 0609UTC.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 141.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 140.9E, APPROXIMATELY 106 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF IWO-TO. THIS DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MONSOON GYRE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC), WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. A 060601Z TMS (TROPICS) 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LLC. SURFACE WINDS FROM IWO-TO INDICATE STEADY WEST-SOUTHERLY SUSTAINED WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH A SLP VALUE NEAR 1001 MB AND A 2 MB SLP DECREASE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A SLOW NORTHWARD TRACK WITH STEADY CONSOLIDATION OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MONSOON GYRE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.
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ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC), WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER.
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A SLOW NORTHWARD TRACK WITH STEADY CONSOLIDATION OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MONSOON GYRE.
WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC: INVEST 91W. ADVISORY(ABPW) ISSUED AT 0606UTC.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 131.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 126.6E, APPROXIMATELY 150 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA. THIS VERY LARGE SYSTEM IS LOCATED WITHIN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MONSOON GYRE, WHICH REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC, WITH AN EXTENSIVE SWATH OF 15-25 KNOT WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FROM THE EAST PHILIPPINE SEA TO ABOUT 145E. SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THIS REGION RANGE FROM 10-15 KNOTS, REFLECTING THE OVERALL WEAK NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SEVERAL MESOVORTICES (23.1N 126.8E, 25.1N 126.8E, 24.6N 122.7E) ROTATING CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE CENTROID, WHICH REPRESENTS THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 060442Z AMSR2 36 GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES WEAK CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE, WITH ISOLATED CONVECTIVE BURSTS OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINAL CONDITIONS, WITH WEAK DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SST VALUES ARE CONDUCIVE (30-31 C); HOWEVER, EXTENSIVE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT IS HINDERING DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A QUASI-STATIONARY TRACK MOTION SOUTH OF OKINAWA OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 17 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
