2019 Feb 17 11h40UTC
Hi all,
1: INVEST 92W is still rated as low for the next 24 by the JTWC. Models and different analyses point to some likely development next week. The disturbance is located within the Marshall islands area very far from Guam and the Philippines right now.
2: down below is my 2nd video regarding this system.
3: if 92W is not upgraded my next video will be posted in apprx 24hours.
Previous link:
https://www.meteo974.re/Western-North-Pacific-Invest-92W-now-on-the-chart-from-JTWC_a297.html
See you and take care.
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau.
ABPW10 PGTW 170600
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 5.4N 166.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 2.2N 166.4E, APPROXIMATELY 271
NM SOUTHEAST OF KOSRAE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC), WITH POCKETS OF FLARING CONVECTION OVER AND
AROUND THE LLC. A 170442Z SSMIS F-16 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS
SPOTTED DEEP CONVECTION CONSTITUTING POSSIBLE FORMATIVE BANDING. A
162228Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS SHOWS A VERY WEAK, ELONGATED LLC
SURROUNDED BY 10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS. 92W IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW (5 TO 10 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM (30 TO 32 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 92W WILL
TRACK WESTWARD WITH MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION BEFORE CURVING TO THE
NORTH AND BEGINNING QUICKER INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.
Hi all,
1: INVEST 92W is still rated as low for the next 24 by the JTWC. Models and different analyses point to some likely development next week. The disturbance is located within the Marshall islands area very far from Guam and the Philippines right now.
2: down below is my 2nd video regarding this system.
3: if 92W is not upgraded my next video will be posted in apprx 24hours.
Previous link:
https://www.meteo974.re/Western-North-Pacific-Invest-92W-now-on-the-chart-from-JTWC_a297.html
See you and take care.
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau.
ABPW10 PGTW 170600
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 5.4N 166.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 2.2N 166.4E, APPROXIMATELY 271
NM SOUTHEAST OF KOSRAE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC), WITH POCKETS OF FLARING CONVECTION OVER AND
AROUND THE LLC. A 170442Z SSMIS F-16 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS
SPOTTED DEEP CONVECTION CONSTITUTING POSSIBLE FORMATIVE BANDING. A
162228Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS SHOWS A VERY WEAK, ELONGATED LLC
SURROUNDED BY 10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS. 92W IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW (5 TO 10 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM (30 TO 32 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 92W WILL
TRACK WESTWARD WITH MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION BEFORE CURVING TO THE
NORTH AND BEGINNING QUICKER INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.
