INVEST 90S// INVEST 93S// INVEST 94P//10 DAY ECMWF Storm Tracks//1503utc

JTWC IS ISSUING 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON INVEST 90S ,ON INVEST 93S AND ON INVEST 94P.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.6S 66.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.8S 65.1E, APPROXIMATELY 299 NM NORTH- NORTHEAST OF PORT MATHURIN, MAURITIUS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION BECOMING MORE PERSISTENT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT DUE TO GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (5-10KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST). FURTHERMORE, A POINT SOURCE DIRECTLY OVER THE ANALYZED POSITION REVEALS SUPPORTIVE, ROBUST RADIAL DIVERGENCE ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 90S WILL SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD INTO AN AREA OF INCREASED SURFACE LEVEL CONVERGENCE BY TAU 72 AND RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 90S WILL SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD INTO AN AREA OF INCREASED SURFACE LEVEL CONVERGENCE BY TAU 72 AND RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATE.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.5S 137.7W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.6S 137.9W, APPROXIMATELY 94 NM NORTHWEST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 142031Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT FORMATIVE SHALLOW BANDS OF CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT 93S IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, MODERATE DUAL-CHANNEL OUTFLOW, AND LOW TO MARGINAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KTS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93S WILL GENERALLY TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA THEN INTERACTING WITH LAND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93S WILL GENERALLY TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA THEN INTERACTING WITH LAND.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.9S 167.7W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.2S 166.5W, APPROXIMATELY 260 NM NORTHEAST OF NIUE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 141707Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE PASS DEPICTS A QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH RAIN BANDS BEGINNING TO WRAP IN. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, WITH WARM (28C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND LOW VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (5-10 KTS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 94P WILL GENERALLY HEAD SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 94P WILL GENERALLY HEAD SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.