INDIAN OCEAN: TC 01B: significant intensification forecast next 4 days. TC LORNA(25S): significant weakening forecast after 12hours

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TC 01B
As of 06:00 UTC Apr 27, 2019:
Location: 5.1°N 89.8°E
Maximum Winds: 45 kt ( 85km/h)
Gusts: 55 kt ( 100km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 998 mb
REMARKS:
270900Z POSITION NEAR 5.4N 89.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 600 NM EAST
OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
(KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS SPIRAL BANDING WITH POCKETS OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION WHICH WAS BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE CENTER IN
A 270302Z MHS 89 GHZ IMAGE. THE CENTER IN THAT IMAGE WAS IDENTIFIED
BY FOLLOWING SPIRAL RAIN BANDS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS
CONSISTENT WITH PGTW AND KNES DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KTS). LOW-
TO-MODERATE (10-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND
VERY WARM (30-31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ALL SUPPORT
INTENSIFICATION. TC 01B IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). AROUND TAU 72, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL
CAUSE A BREAK IN THE STR, ALLOWING TC 01B TO RECURVE TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST. THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION
UNTIL ROUNDING THE STR AXIS AND ENCOUNTERING HIGH VWS. ALTHOUGH THE
PEAK INTENSITY IS STILL EXPECTED TO OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER ROUNDING THE
STR AXIS, THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF
RAPID INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. AS A RESULT, THE RATE
OF INTENSIFICATION AND PEAK INTENSITY HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD
DESPITE THE MESOSCALE MODELS NOT CALLING FOR SIGNIFICANT
INTENSIFICATION UNTIL AFTER TAU 48. THE TRACK GUIDANCE GENERALLY
FOLLOWS THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST (THE SPREAD IS ONLY 180 NM BY TAU
120). NAVGEM IS A BIT OF AN OUTLIER, PRIMARILY BECAUSE IT
ACCELERATES MORE QUICKLY THAN THE OTHER MEMBERS AFTER ROUNDING THE
STR AXIS. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST BASED
ON GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE AND FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 14
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 271500Z, 272100Z, 280300Z AND 280900Z.//
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TC LORNA(25S)
As of 06:00 UTC Apr 27, 2019:
Location: 14.4°S 88.7°E
Maximum Winds: 65 kt ( 120km/h)
Gusts: 80 kt ( 150km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 981 mb
CATEGORY 1 US
REMARKS:
270900Z POSITION NEAR 14.8S 88.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25S (LORNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 495 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS (KTS)
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS A LARGE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON A
270306Z MHS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE THAT REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION TO
THE WEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 65 KTS IS CONSISTENT WITH PGTW AND KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KTS). WITH MODERATE (15-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) BEING OFFSET BY EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (27-
28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST), THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS
TO BE MODERATELY FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. FOR THE DURATION OF
THE FORECAST, TC 25S WILL TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL
BE SHORT-LIVED AND THERE ARE ABOUT 12 HOURS WHERE THE SYSTEM CAN
INTENSIFY BEFORE HIGH VWS AND COOL SST WILL CAUSE STEADY, FAIRLY
RAPID WEAKENING. BY TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL BE UNDERGOING
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT DISSIPATES. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS CLUSTERED AROUND THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST BUT THE TAU 72
SPREAD IS OVER 250 NM. BASED ON THE HIGH SPREAD, THERE IS FAIR
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS PLACED CLOSE TO
CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 29 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 271500Z, 272100Z, 280300Z AND 280900Z.//
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