Hurricane 02L(BERYL) unprecedented CAT 4 so early in the season//03L(CHRIS) remnants//INVEST 96L//10 Day ECMWF Storm Tracks//0115utc

Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1100 AM AST Mon Jul 01 2024 Satellite and radar data this morning suggest Beryl has completed an eyewall replacement cycle. Radar images from Barbados show a solid ring of deep convection surrounding the warming, well-defined eye of the hurricane. Data collected by the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters this morning confirm that Beryl has strengthened. Dropsondes indicate the central pressure has fallen to around 956 mb, and the earlier flight-level winds and SFMR data supported an intensity of around 115 kt a couple of hours ago. The hurricane's satellite structure has continued to improve this morning, and recent objective satellite estimates justify raising the initial intensity to 120 kt. The core of the powerful hurricane is nearing Carriacou Island, Grenada, and the Grenadine Islands, where conditions are rapidly deteriorating and residents should take action to protect their lives. Aircraft and radar fixes indicate Beryl has jogged northwestward over the past several hours, and the initial estimated motion is west-northwest or 285/17 kt. The hurricane is currently moving across the southern Windward Islands. A mid-level steering ridge to the north of Beryl should steer the hurricane quickly west-northwestward to westward across the Caribbean Sea during the next few days as a mid-level ridge strengthens to the north of the cyclone. This portion of the track forecast is very similar to the previous advisory, and the NHC forecast remains close to the multi-model consensus aids. At days 3-5, there is some increased spread in the track guidance, likely regarding the strength of the steering ridge as Beryl approaches the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the Yucatan Peninsula. This portion of the forecast was nudged slightly north of the previous one, but still lies south of the consensus aids. Since the eyewall replacement cycle has completed, the updated NHC forecast allows for some additional near-term strengthening based on recent aircraft data and the improved satellite and radar structure of the hurricane. As previously noted, an increase in westerly shear is expected by midweek, which is expected to induce some weakening while Beryl moves across the central and northwestern Caribbean Sea. This is reflected in the latest NHC prediction that follows the multi-model consensus trends. Regardless, Beryl is forecast to remain a powerful hurricane through late this week, and interests in the northwestern Caribbean and the Yucatan Peninsula should continue to monitor the latest forecast updates. Based on the latest NHC forecast, the government of Jamaica has issued a Hurricane Watch for the island. Key Messages: 1. The eyewall of Beryl is moving through the southern Windward Islands. This is an extremely dangerous and life-threatening situation. Take action now to protect your life! Residents in Grenada, the Grenadine Islands, and Carriacou Island should not leave their shelter as destructive winds and life-threatening storm surge are expected during the next few hours. Shelter in place through the passage of these life-threatening conditions and do not venture out in the eye of the storm. 2. Heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding are expected across the Windward Islands through this afternoon. 3. Beryl is expected to remain a powerful hurricane as it moves across the Caribbean Sea later this week. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for Jamaica. Interests in the Cayman Islands, Belize, the Yucatan Peninsula, and the remainder of the northwestern Caribbean should monitor its progress. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required during the next day or two. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 12.4N 61.3W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 13.3N 64.1W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 14.5N 67.8W 125 KT 145 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 15.6N 71.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 16.4N 75.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 04/0000Z 17.2N 79.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 04/1200Z 17.8N 82.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 05/1200Z 19.0N 88.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 120H 06/1200Z 20.5N 93.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER $$ Forecaster Reinhart