TC 09P(IMOGEN) WARNING 1: NEAR-TERM INTENSIFICATION (THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS) TO A PEAK OF 45 TO 50 KNOTS IS LIKELY BEFORE THE EXPECTED LANDFALL JUST PRIOR 12H NORTH OF KARUMBA, BUT IS NOT CAPTURED BY THE FORECAST POINTS.
TC #09P #IMOGEN #SOUTHPACIFICOCEAN #GULFOFCARPENTARIA
UPDATE
As of 06:00 UTC Jan 03, 2021:
Location: 16.8°S 139.9°E
Maximum Winds: 35 kt ( 65km/h)
Gusts: 45 kt ( 85km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 mb
INTENSIFYING
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
REMARKS:
030900Z POSITION NEAR 17.0S 140.2E.
03JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (IMOGEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 339
NM WEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) INDICATES THAT THE CENTRAL ROTATION HAS CONSOLIDATED
INTO A BROAD, STILL SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED CIRCULATION, WITH
CONVECTIVE BANDING SPIRALLING INTO A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ANIMATED RADAR DATA FROM ABOM SHOWS THE
DISORGANIZED CENTER, AND PROVIDES CLARIFICATION TO THE INITIAL
POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO
35 KNOTS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0 TO T2.5 (30-35 KTS). SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS FROM MORNINGTON ISLAND SHOW A PEAK SUSTAINED WIND OF 27
KNOTS AS THE CENTER PASSED, WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 52 KNOTS, WHICH
PROVIDES ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR THE INITIAL INTENSITY. TC 09P IS
FORECAST TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTWEST PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP-LAYER NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST
OVER THE SOLOMON ISLANDS THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS SUPPORT FOR ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEAR-TERM, WITH VERY WARM (31 DEG C) SSTS,
LOW (5-10 KTS) VWS AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE BASE OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. NEAR-TERM INTENSIFICATION (THE NEXT
6 TO 12 HOURS) TO A PEAK OF 45 TO 50 KTS IS LIKELY BEFORE THE
EXPECTED LANDFALL JUST PRIOR TAU 12 NORTH OF KARUMBA, BUT IS NOT
CAPTURED BY THE FORECAST POINTS. AFTER LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEAST WHILE WEAKENING, AND IS EXPECTED TO
FULLY DISSIPATE BY TAU 36 AS THE CIRCULATION BUTTS UP AGAINST THE
RUGGED TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE YORK PENINSULA. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING
HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 031500Z, 032100Z,
040300Z AND 040900Z.
UPDATE
As of 06:00 UTC Jan 03, 2021:
Location: 16.8°S 139.9°E
Maximum Winds: 35 kt ( 65km/h)
Gusts: 45 kt ( 85km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 mb
INTENSIFYING
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
REMARKS:
030900Z POSITION NEAR 17.0S 140.2E.
03JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (IMOGEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 339
NM WEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) INDICATES THAT THE CENTRAL ROTATION HAS CONSOLIDATED
INTO A BROAD, STILL SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED CIRCULATION, WITH
CONVECTIVE BANDING SPIRALLING INTO A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ANIMATED RADAR DATA FROM ABOM SHOWS THE
DISORGANIZED CENTER, AND PROVIDES CLARIFICATION TO THE INITIAL
POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO
35 KNOTS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0 TO T2.5 (30-35 KTS). SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS FROM MORNINGTON ISLAND SHOW A PEAK SUSTAINED WIND OF 27
KNOTS AS THE CENTER PASSED, WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 52 KNOTS, WHICH
PROVIDES ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR THE INITIAL INTENSITY. TC 09P IS
FORECAST TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTWEST PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP-LAYER NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST
OVER THE SOLOMON ISLANDS THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS SUPPORT FOR ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEAR-TERM, WITH VERY WARM (31 DEG C) SSTS,
LOW (5-10 KTS) VWS AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE BASE OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. NEAR-TERM INTENSIFICATION (THE NEXT
6 TO 12 HOURS) TO A PEAK OF 45 TO 50 KTS IS LIKELY BEFORE THE
EXPECTED LANDFALL JUST PRIOR TAU 12 NORTH OF KARUMBA, BUT IS NOT
CAPTURED BY THE FORECAST POINTS. AFTER LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEAST WHILE WEAKENING, AND IS EXPECTED TO
FULLY DISSIPATE BY TAU 36 AS THE CIRCULATION BUTTS UP AGAINST THE
RUGGED TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE YORK PENINSULA. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING
HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 031500Z, 032100Z,
040300Z AND 040900Z.
TRACK GUIDANCE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE
03/06UTC.
