TC FANI(01B) IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 3 CYCLONE
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SHORT VIDEO WITH ZOOM ON THE FORECAST TRACK AND SATELLITE ANIMATIONS JUST BELOW
Location: 14.9°N 84.2°E
Maximum Winds: 105 kt ( 195km/h)
Gusts: 130 kt ( 240km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 951 mb
CATEGORY 3 US
REMARKS:
011500Z POSITION NEAR 15.2N 84.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (FANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 520 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A
SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WITH A SMALL RAGGED EYE
AND A MORE SYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE CORE. A 011156Z GMI MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOWS TIGHTLY-CURVED SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A 12NM MICROWAVE
EYE FEATURE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 105 KNOTS
BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 5.5 (102 KNOTS) AND A
011145Z CIMSS SATCON ESTIMATE OF 105 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES GENERALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH MODERATE VWS OFFSET BY
NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, SSTS (30-31C) AND OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT VALUES REMAIN HIGHLY CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. TC
FANI IS FORECAST TO TRACK POLEWARD THROUGH TAU 48 ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. DUE TO THE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND DECREASING VWS OVER THE NEXT DAY, THE
SYSTEM SHOULD INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS BY
TAU 12. AFTER TAU 24, TC 01B WILL WEAKEN GRADUALLY DUE TO INCREASING
VWS AND INTERACTION WITH LAND. AFTER TAU 72, TC 01B WILL ENCOUNTER
INCREASING VWS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER NORTHEAST INDIA AND WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS
IT ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD. OVERALL, THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WITH A MODEL SPREAD OF 155NM AT TAU 72
AND A GREATER SPREAD IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD OVER LAND. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
012100Z, 020300Z, 020900Z AND 021500Z.//
NNNN
https://www.meteo974.re/
SHORT VIDEO WITH ZOOM ON THE FORECAST TRACK AND SATELLITE ANIMATIONS JUST BELOW
Location: 14.9°N 84.2°E
Maximum Winds: 105 kt ( 195km/h)
Gusts: 130 kt ( 240km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 951 mb
CATEGORY 3 US
REMARKS:
011500Z POSITION NEAR 15.2N 84.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (FANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 520 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A
SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WITH A SMALL RAGGED EYE
AND A MORE SYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE CORE. A 011156Z GMI MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOWS TIGHTLY-CURVED SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A 12NM MICROWAVE
EYE FEATURE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 105 KNOTS
BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 5.5 (102 KNOTS) AND A
011145Z CIMSS SATCON ESTIMATE OF 105 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES GENERALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH MODERATE VWS OFFSET BY
NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, SSTS (30-31C) AND OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT VALUES REMAIN HIGHLY CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. TC
FANI IS FORECAST TO TRACK POLEWARD THROUGH TAU 48 ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. DUE TO THE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND DECREASING VWS OVER THE NEXT DAY, THE
SYSTEM SHOULD INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS BY
TAU 12. AFTER TAU 24, TC 01B WILL WEAKEN GRADUALLY DUE TO INCREASING
VWS AND INTERACTION WITH LAND. AFTER TAU 72, TC 01B WILL ENCOUNTER
INCREASING VWS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER NORTHEAST INDIA AND WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS
IT ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD. OVERALL, THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WITH A MODEL SPREAD OF 155NM AT TAU 72
AND A GREATER SPREAD IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD OVER LAND. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
012100Z, 020300Z, 020900Z AND 021500Z.//
NNNN
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