WARN21/JTWC
https://www.meteo974.re/
https://www.meteo974.re/
Location: 18.2°N 90.0°E
Maximum Winds: 75 kt ( 140km/h)
Gusts: 90 kt ( 170km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 976 mb
CATEGORY 1 US
REMARKS:
281500Z POSITION NEAR 18.7S 89.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25S (LORNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 538 NM
SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15
KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE EYE HAS BECOME CLOUD-FILLED, THE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED, AND SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) IS SIGNIFICANTLY ELONGATING THE CLOUD SIGNATURE. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON A 281116Z GMI 37 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING AN EYE FEATURE. DESPITE THE DECAY IN THE
CLOUD PATTERN, THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 75 KTS. THIS INTENSITY
IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF
T4.5 (77 KTS). MODERATE (20-25 KT) VWS AND MARGINAL (26-27 CELSIUS)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) ARE OFFSETTING EXCELLENT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW TO INHIBIT INTENSIFICATION. FOR THE DURATION OF THE
FORECAST, TC 25S WILL TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND ENCOUNTER INCREASINGLY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS TO CAUSE STEADY WEAKENING. AROUND TAU 24, INTERACTION
WITH THE MID-LATITUDE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL CAUSE EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT) TO BEGIN. BY TAU 48, ETT WILL BE COMPLETE. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE CONSENSUS TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
282100Z, 290300Z, 290900Z AND 291500Z.//
NNNN
https://www.meteo974.re/
Location: 18.2°N 90.0°E
Maximum Winds: 75 kt ( 140km/h)
Gusts: 90 kt ( 170km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 976 mb
CATEGORY 1 US
REMARKS:
281500Z POSITION NEAR 18.7S 89.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25S (LORNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 538 NM
SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15
KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE EYE HAS BECOME CLOUD-FILLED, THE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED, AND SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) IS SIGNIFICANTLY ELONGATING THE CLOUD SIGNATURE. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON A 281116Z GMI 37 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING AN EYE FEATURE. DESPITE THE DECAY IN THE
CLOUD PATTERN, THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 75 KTS. THIS INTENSITY
IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF
T4.5 (77 KTS). MODERATE (20-25 KT) VWS AND MARGINAL (26-27 CELSIUS)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) ARE OFFSETTING EXCELLENT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW TO INHIBIT INTENSIFICATION. FOR THE DURATION OF THE
FORECAST, TC 25S WILL TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND ENCOUNTER INCREASINGLY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS TO CAUSE STEADY WEAKENING. AROUND TAU 24, INTERACTION
WITH THE MID-LATITUDE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL CAUSE EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT) TO BEGIN. BY TAU 48, ETT WILL BE COMPLETE. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE CONSENSUS TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
282100Z, 290300Z, 290900Z AND 291500Z.//
NNNN
1330UTC
1116UTC
