CAT 3 Hurricane 02L(BERYL) intensifying next 24h//INVEST 94L// INVEST 96L// ECMWF 10 Day Strom Tracks//3015utc

Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1100 AM AST Sun Jun 30 2024 Data from the Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunters this morning indicate that Beryl continues to rapidly intensify. Based on the data collected, the minimum pressure has fallen significantly to 964 mb and the maximum wind speed is now up to 105 kt. Although Beryl is still on the small side, the wind field is a little larger than previously noted with the tropical-storm-force winds estimated to extend up to 100 n mi from the center and hurricane-force winds up to 25 n mi from the eye. Satellite images show that Beryl has a classic major hurricane pattern with a clear and circular eye and symmetric convective pattern surrounding it. Beryl continues to move swiftly westward at 18 kt steered by a strong subtropical ridge to its north. The hurricane has been moving a little to the south of most of the model predictions over the past day or two. A continued quick west to west-northwest motion is forecast during the next several days as the ridge remains the primary steering feature. This should take the core of Beryl across the Windward Islands Monday morning and then across much the Caribbean Sea during the following few days. The NHC track forecast has been nudged to the south of the previous prediction and lies close to the various consensus aids. The major hurricane has rapidly intensified since it formed a couple of days ago, and given the continued conducive environmental conditions and compact inner core, it will likely strengthen some more through tonight. Beryl is expected to be a very dangerous category 4 hurricane when it moves through Windward Islands. The models show a gradual increase in shear when the system moves across the Caribbean Sea and that should cause Beryl's intensity to level off and then gradually weaken. However, Beryl is expected to remain a significant hurricane through the next 5 days. The intensity forecast is a little above the previous one and in good agreement with the HCCA and IVCN models. Key Messages: 1. Beryl is expected to be an extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane when it reaches the Windward Islands. This is a very dangerous situation and residents in these areas should listen to local government and emergency management officials for any preparedness and/or evacuation orders. All preparations should be rushed to completion today. 2. Potentially catastrophic hurricane-force winds, a life-threatening storm surge, and damaging waves are expected when Beryl passes over portions of the Windward Islands with the highest risk of the core in St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and Grenada beginning early Monday morning. Hurricane Warnings are in effect for much of the Windward Islands. 3. Heavy rainfall and localized flooding are expected across the Windward Islands through Monday. 4. Beryl is expected to remain a powerful hurricane as it moves across the Caribbean Sea later this week and interests in Hispaniola, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and the remainder of the northwestern Caribbean should monitor its progress, There is large forecast uncertainty at days 4 and 5 and users should not focus on the specific details of the track or intensity forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 10.7N 54.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 11.2N 57.5W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 12.1N 60.9W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 02/0000Z 13.3N 64.3W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 02/1200Z 14.6N 68.2W 115 KT 130 MPH 60H 03/0000Z 15.6N 72.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 03/1200Z 16.4N 75.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 04/1200Z 17.8N 82.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 05/1200Z 19.2N 88.3W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Cangialosi