Location: 5.7°N 153.8°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1006 mb
ABPW10 PGTW 1306001. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.4N
155.3E, APPROXIMATELY 234 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK ISLAND.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 130239Z AMSR2 89GHZ
PARTIAL MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LLC BELOW A BROAD
REGION OF FLARING CONVECTION WITH FRAGMENTARY, FORMATIVE BANDING
WRAPPING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. A 122233Z DIRECT ASCAT PASS SHOWS A
DEFINED AND TIGHT CIRCULATION WITH A FEW 20KT WIND BARBS IN THE CORE
AND ISOLATED 25KT WINDS TO THE NORTH AND WEST UNDER THE FRAGMENTED
BANDING. 95W IS CURRENTLY UNDER MODERATE (15-25KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WITH STRONG ASSOCIATED DIVERGENCE DUE TO ROBUST SOUTHEASTERLY
UPPER LEVEL FLOW. SSTS ARE FAVORABLE (28-30C) FOR FURTHER TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT ON A STRAIGHT
WESTWARD TRACK BUT VARY ON INTENSITY, WITH GFS AND NAVGEM PREDICTING
POSSIBLE FORMATION AS A WEAK TROPICAL STORM AND THE ECMWF AND UKMO
BELOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS
ASSESSMENT DUE TO MODEL SPATIAL RESOLUTION AND THE SMALL SIZE OF THE
DISTURBANCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
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2233UTC
