25W(MALOU) intensifying to Typhoon level by 24h/26W making landfall within 12/18h//17E(RICK) reached CAT 2 and made landfall,26/09utc updates

JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON 25W AND 26W.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: THE INITIAL POSITION AS WELL AS PREVIOUS BEST TRACK POSITIONS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ABOUT 90-KM FURTHER SOUTH BASED ON 0000Z ASCAT DATA WHICH INDICATED A BROAD, AND SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED CIRCULATION HIDDEN BY A DENSE UPPER-LEVEL CIRRUS SHIELD. BASED ON THE ADJUSTED TRACK POSITIONS, THE SYSTEM HAS SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWED, IN RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK MESOSCALE, MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THIS RIDGE SHOULD WEAKEN AND RETROGRADE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, AND TS 25W IS EXPECTED TO RESUME A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND ATMOSPHERIC MOTION VECTORS INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A DEEP 200MB TROUGH TO THE WEST, WHICH IS SERVING TO ENHANCE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS STARTING TO PICK UP ON THE IMPROVED OUTFLOW, TRIGGERING THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION PREDICTION AID (RIPA) IN RESPONSE TO QUICKLY IMPROVING OUTFLOW. ONCE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CONSOLIDATES, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 80 KNOTS/CAT 1 BY 48H. TS 25W WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BETWEEN 48/72H AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS, ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR(VWS) AND STARTS TO ENTRAIN A COOLER, DRIER AIR MOVING QUICKLY SOUTHWARD FROM JAPAN. THE SYSTEM WILL FULLY TRANSITION TO AN EXTRA-TROPICAL CYCLONE NO LATER THAN 96H, AND POTENTIALLY AS EARLY AS 72H.

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS FRAGMENTED BANDS OF MODERATE TO DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE ASSESSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), THOUGH THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE BROAD CENTRAL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE OBSCURATION OF THE LLCC BY HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND THE BROAD AND DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THE CIRCULATION AS EVIDENCED IN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER IMAGERY. AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE FIX POSITIONS ARE WIDELY SCATTERED ACROSS A 130-KM CIRCLE, CONTRIBUTING TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A CONGRUENCE OF THE BULK OF THE AGENCY FIXES AND THE OBJECTIVE ADT AND SATCON ESTIMATES.

MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH CROSS-TRACK SPREAD LIMITED TO 200KM AT 48H INCREASING TO 305KM AT 96H, WITH NAVGEM THE EASTERN OUTLIER. ALONG-TRACK SPREAD INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 72H AS THE SYSTEM ACCELERATES WHILE UNDERGOING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND LIES SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE CONSENSUS MEAN 48H, AND SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE MEAN THROUGH 96H. THE BULK OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ABOUT THE MEAN, AND THE JTWC FORECAST TRACKS THE CONSENSUS CLOSELY FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, THE RIPA GUIDANCE HAS TRIGGERED ON THIS RUN, INDICATING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS BY 48H, WHICH IS OVER 20 KNOTS HIGHER THAN THE CONSENSUS MEAN AND THE INDIVIDUAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE MEMBERS. WHILE THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, THE BROAD NATURE OF THE CIRCULATION AND LACK OF A WELL-DEFINED CONVECTIVE CORE ARGUE AGAINST NEAR-TERM RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO THE DEGREE THAT RIPA IS INDICATING.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 26W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STR COMPLEX EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN THAILAND TO HAINAN, AND THEN EXTENDING SOUTHWARD OVER THE PHILIPPINES. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS NEAR NINH HOA, VIETNAM, THEN CONTINUE TRACKING INLAND. WHILE THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, THE LIMITED TIME OVER WATER WILL HINDER MUCH IN THE WAY OF INTENSIFICATION, WITH A PEAK OF 30 KNOTS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL. DUE TO FUNNELING EFFECTS BETWEEN THE COASTLINE AND THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM, GALE FORCE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN THE BAND OF HIGH WINDS IN THE WESTERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM, BUT THE OVERALL INTENSITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH 35 KNOTS. ONCE ASHORE, THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND ULTIMATELY DISSIPATE OVER NORTHERN CAMBODIA BY 36H.

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W HAS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, AND REACHED WARNING INTENSITY. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH SHALLOW TO MID-LEVEL CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS, CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO FLARE OVER THE ASSESSED CENTER, THOUGH THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE REMAINS FAIRLY DISORGANIZED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC, SPIRAL BAND ANALYSIS AND THE FIRST HINTS OF A THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LLCC ON AN ANIMATED RADAR MOSAIC FROM VIETNAM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A PGTW AND KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T1.5, A 260245Z ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED A SWATH OF NORTH-SOUTH WINDS OVER 30 KNOTS TRAPPED BETWEEN THE VIETNAMESE COAST AND THE CENTER, WITH 20-25 KNOTS WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER ON THE SOUTH AND EASTERN SIDES. A 260600Z SHIP OBSERVATION APPROXIMATELY 40-KM SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER INDICATED A 27 KNOT WIND, PROVIDING ADDITIONAL SUPPORT TO THE INTENSITY. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH LOW VWS, MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SSTS.

MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST.

HURRICANE 17E(RICK) MADE LANDFALL NEAR LAZARO CARDENAS NEAR PEAK INTENSITY(90 KNOTS/CAT 2).

26/0830UTC.