23UTC: South Pacific: Invest 95P north of Pago Pago may develop next few days

2019 Feb 23 2320UTC

INVEST 95P
As of 18:00 UTC Feb 23, 2019:
Location: 8.5°S 175.1°W
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1007 mb
ABPW10 PGTW 231430
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
  2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
10.1S 175.0W, APPROXIMATELY 460 NM NORTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN
SAMOA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 230901Z
MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A VERY BROAD CIRCULATION WITH FLARING
CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE NORTH. A 230937Z ASCAT-C PASS SHOWS A
BROAD AREA OF TURNING WITH PRIMARILY 20 KNOT WINDS AND HIGHER WINDS
DISPLACED TO THE NORTH. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN
AREA OF GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (20-30 KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30
CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL
INTENSIFY TO WARNING CRITERIA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES SOUTH INTO AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) AS A LOW.//
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