21UTC: TREVOR(20P) near landfall as a strong category 3 US with top gusts approaching 250km/h

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TC TREVOR(20P)
As of 18:00 UTC Mar 22, 2019:
Location: 15.6°S 138.2°E
Maximum Winds: 105 kt (195km/h)
Gusts: 130 kt ( 240km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 952 mb
CATEGORY 3 US
NEAR LANDFALL
REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 15.9S 137.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P (TREVOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 464 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH A RAGGED EYE. AS SHOWN
IN THE RECENT UW-CIMSS M-PERC GRAPHIC, A 221635Z AMSR2 89GHZ
COMPOSITE IMAGE AND RECENT RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT TC 20P IS
UNDERGOING AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE WITH A SMALL INNER EYE AND
MOAT FEATURE SURROUNDED BY A LARGER SECONDARY EYEWALL. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 105 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T5.5
(102 KNOTS) FROM ALL AGENCIES. BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE, THERE IS
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. TC 20P IS TRACKING
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST BUT IS FORECAST TO TURN
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWARD AFTER TAU 24 AS THE STR WEAKENS IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE SYSTEM SHOULD MAKE
LANDFALL NEAR TAU 06 AND START WEAKENING STEADILY AS IT TRACKS
INLAND WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY TAU 48. BASED ON THE TIGHT
GROUPING OF DYNAMIC MODEL VORTEX TRACKERS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 30
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230300Z, 230900Z, 231500Z AND 232100Z.//
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