2209UTC
TC HALEH 17S
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
As of 18:00 UTC Mar 08, 2019:
Location: 33.6°S 65.3°E
Maximum Winds: 40 kt (75km/h)
Gusts: 50 kt (95km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 993 mb
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 34.3S 65.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (HALEH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 915 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH
ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FROM THE ANIMATED IMAGERY
AND A 081752Z METOP-A 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KTS, WHICH CONTINUES TO BE
HEDGED ABOVE KNES/PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T1.0-T1.5 (25
KTS) DUE TO A PARTIAL 081753Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS SHOWING A LARGE
SWATH OF 40KT WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. TC 17S IS SHOWING
SOME SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS THE STRONGEST WINDS AND
CONVECTION ARE BECOMING SIGNIFICANTLY DISPLACED FROM THE CENTER. THE
ENVIRONMENT IS OVERALL UNFAVORABLE WITH COOL (22-24 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND HIGH (25-35 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
OVERCOMING A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL WHICH WILL WEAKEN THE
INTENSITY BELOW BASIN WARNING THRESHOLD BY TAU 24. TC 17S IS
TRACKING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. AROUND TAU 12, THE SYSTEM WILL TURN
SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE STR AXIS AND BEGINS TO RECURVE.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT, LENDING TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 31 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z, 090900Z AND
091500Z.//
NNNN
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
As of 18:00 UTC Mar 08, 2019:
Location: 33.6°S 65.3°E
Maximum Winds: 40 kt (75km/h)
Gusts: 50 kt (95km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 993 mb
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 34.3S 65.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (HALEH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 915 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH
ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FROM THE ANIMATED IMAGERY
AND A 081752Z METOP-A 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KTS, WHICH CONTINUES TO BE
HEDGED ABOVE KNES/PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T1.0-T1.5 (25
KTS) DUE TO A PARTIAL 081753Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS SHOWING A LARGE
SWATH OF 40KT WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. TC 17S IS SHOWING
SOME SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS THE STRONGEST WINDS AND
CONVECTION ARE BECOMING SIGNIFICANTLY DISPLACED FROM THE CENTER. THE
ENVIRONMENT IS OVERALL UNFAVORABLE WITH COOL (22-24 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND HIGH (25-35 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
OVERCOMING A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL WHICH WILL WEAKEN THE
INTENSITY BELOW BASIN WARNING THRESHOLD BY TAU 24. TC 17S IS
TRACKING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. AROUND TAU 12, THE SYSTEM WILL TURN
SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE STR AXIS AND BEGINS TO RECURVE.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT, LENDING TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 31 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z, 090900Z AND
091500Z.//
NNNN
2230UTC
2139UTC
1753UTC
18UTC
