WARNING 24/JTWC
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
Location: 20.5°S 67.0°E
Maximum Winds: 115 kt (215km/h)
Gusts: 140 kt ( 260km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 941 mb
CATEGORY US: 4
REMARKS:
272100Z POSITION NEAR 20.6S 67.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT MATHURIN, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
A RECENT PGTW SATELLITE EYE FIX AND A 271734Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS. THE
INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF RECENT
AGENCY SUBJECTIVE DVORAK AND CIMSS AUTOMATED SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES. TC 22S HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS IN RESPONSE
TO PASSAGE OVER WARM WATER AND STRONG OUTFLOW ALOFT AIDED BY AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW SITUATED TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM IS TURNING POLEWARD
IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST, WHICH WILL
BECOME THE PRIOR STEERING MECHANISM DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC
22S IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLOWLY IN THE NEAR-TERM AS STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OFFSETS THE IMPACT OF INCREASING WESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ASSOCIATED WITH A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. STEADIER WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED
AFTER TAU 12 AS THE SYSTEM CONTENDS WITH INCREASING VWS. BY TAU 96,
TC 22S WILL LIKELY INTERACT WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CUT OFF FROM
THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY JET AND UNDERGO SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION.
TRANSITION INTO A SUBTROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO BE COMPLETE BY TAU
120. THE CYCLONE SHOULD EVENTUALLY MERGE INTO THE MIDLATITUDE
WESTERLIES AND BECOME FULLY EXTRATROPICAL, BUT AFTER TAU 120. THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK FORECAST
GUIDANCE. THE UKMET AND GALWEM MODELS PREDICT A SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER,
MEANDERING TRACK RELATIVE TO THE OTHER CONSENSUS MODEL GUIDANCE. THE
REMAINING MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING TRACK SPEED,
BUT NOT DIRECTION. THE CURRENT FORECAST LIES SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, FAVORING THE ECMWF DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE MODEL SOLUTIONS, WHICH BEST REFLECT THE ANTICIPATED
EVOLUTION OF THE STEERING PATTERN AS THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE
BUILDS TO THE EAST. GIVEN NOTED MODEL FORECAST SPREAD, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 42 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280300Z, 280900Z,
281500Z AND 282100Z.//
NNNN
Location: 20.5°S 67.0°E
Maximum Winds: 115 kt (215km/h)
Gusts: 140 kt ( 260km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 941 mb
CATEGORY US: 4
REMARKS:
272100Z POSITION NEAR 20.6S 67.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT MATHURIN, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
A RECENT PGTW SATELLITE EYE FIX AND A 271734Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS. THE
INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF RECENT
AGENCY SUBJECTIVE DVORAK AND CIMSS AUTOMATED SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES. TC 22S HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS IN RESPONSE
TO PASSAGE OVER WARM WATER AND STRONG OUTFLOW ALOFT AIDED BY AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW SITUATED TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM IS TURNING POLEWARD
IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST, WHICH WILL
BECOME THE PRIOR STEERING MECHANISM DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC
22S IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLOWLY IN THE NEAR-TERM AS STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OFFSETS THE IMPACT OF INCREASING WESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ASSOCIATED WITH A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. STEADIER WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED
AFTER TAU 12 AS THE SYSTEM CONTENDS WITH INCREASING VWS. BY TAU 96,
TC 22S WILL LIKELY INTERACT WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CUT OFF FROM
THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY JET AND UNDERGO SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION.
TRANSITION INTO A SUBTROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO BE COMPLETE BY TAU
120. THE CYCLONE SHOULD EVENTUALLY MERGE INTO THE MIDLATITUDE
WESTERLIES AND BECOME FULLY EXTRATROPICAL, BUT AFTER TAU 120. THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK FORECAST
GUIDANCE. THE UKMET AND GALWEM MODELS PREDICT A SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER,
MEANDERING TRACK RELATIVE TO THE OTHER CONSENSUS MODEL GUIDANCE. THE
REMAINING MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING TRACK SPEED,
BUT NOT DIRECTION. THE CURRENT FORECAST LIES SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, FAVORING THE ECMWF DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE MODEL SOLUTIONS, WHICH BEST REFLECT THE ANTICIPATED
EVOLUTION OF THE STEERING PATTERN AS THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE
BUILDS TO THE EAST. GIVEN NOTED MODEL FORECAST SPREAD, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 42 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280300Z, 280900Z,
281500Z AND 282100Z.//
NNNN
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